Independiente Medellin
vs
Alianza Valledupar
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Independiente Medellin 2–0 Alianza Valledupar
The model makes it 60% Independiente Medellin, 23% draw, 17% Alianza Valledupar — fair odds of 1.67, 4.35 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Independiente Medellin 2.07, Alianza Valledupar 0.87.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Independiente Medellin: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Independiente Medellin are 6th on 23 points from 14 games; Alianza Valledupar are 14th on 12 points from 13 games — Primera A.
- Independiente Medellin have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Once Caldas.
- Alianza Valledupar have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Águilas Doradas.
- Last 6 meetings: Independiente Medellin 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Alianza Valledupar 0–1 Independiente Medellin.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente Medellin at 60% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar
Independiente Medellin
- L0-2Once Caldas18 October 2026
- W2-1away to America de Cali12 October 2026
- L0-1Santa Fe6 October 2026
- D2-2Millonarios30 September 2026
- L0-2away to Junior27 September 2026
Alianza Valledupar
- D2-2Águilas Doradas9 October 2026
- L1-3away to Deportivo Cali3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Jaguares27 September 2026
- L1-4Santa Fe19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chico16 September 2026
What these results say
- Independiente Medellin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Independiente Medellin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Valledupar scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Valledupar conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Alianza Valledupar had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Independiente Medellin | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 23 |
| 14 | Alianza Valledupar | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar
- 19 April 2026Alianza Valledupar 0–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 13 July 2025Independiente Medellin 1–1 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 27 January 2025Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 10 October 2024Independiente Medellin 2–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 24 February 2024Alianza Valledupar 2–0 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 20 August 2023Independiente Medellin 2–1 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
The two sides
Independiente Medellin carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.26 for Alianza Valledupar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.07 goals for Independiente Medellin and 0.87 for Alianza Valledupar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Independiente Medellin rate 0.77 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alianza Valledupar rate 0.57 and 1.85.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Independiente Medellin a 0.1% chance of the title and Alianza Valledupar 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Independiente Medellin the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Independiente Medellin against 0.87 for Alianza Valledupar. Independiente Medellin's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.85 for Alianza Valledupar.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Independiente Medellin at home · Alianza Valledupar away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Independiente Medellin 31, Alianza Valledupar 32.
Independiente Medellin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Alianza Valledupar have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Independiente Medellin
- at Fortaleza FC7 Nov · Primera Awin 35%
- at Águilas Doradas12 Nov · Primera Awin 32%
Alianza Valledupar
- vs Llaneros9 Nov · Primera Awin 37%
- at Millonarios12 Nov · Primera Awin 13%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.