Viborg
vs
AC Horsens
Superliga prediction
Our model says: Viborg 2–1 AC Horsens
The model makes it 49% Viborg, 24% draw, 27% AC Horsens — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Viborg 2.01, AC Horsens 1.33.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Viborg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Viborg are 3rd on 20 points from 10 games; AC Horsens are 6th on 13 points from 11 games — Superliga.
- Viborg are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Randers FC.
- AC Horsens are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Randers FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Viborg 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 August 2026, ended AC Horsens 2–3 Viborg.
More Danish Superliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Viborg vs AC Horsens
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Viborg at 49% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Viborg vs AC Horsens
Viborg
- W2-0away to Randers FC11 October 2026
- W4-1FC Nordsjaelland20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Silkeborg13 September 2026
- L0-2Lyngby4 September 2026
- W3-2away to AC Horsens28 August 2026
AC Horsens
- D0-0Randers FC16 October 2026
- D3-3away to Silkeborg11 October 2026
- D2-2Aarhus20 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Copenhagen11 September 2026
- W5-2away to Sonderjyske6 September 2026
What these results say
- Viborg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Viborg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AC Horsens failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- AC Horsens conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Viborg | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 20 |
| 6 | AC Horsens | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Viborg vs AC Horsens
- 28 August 2026AC Horsens 2–3 ViborgSuperliga
- 4 September 2025AC Horsens 0–1 ViborgDBU Pokalen
- 4 September 2024AC Horsens 0–4 ViborgDBU Pokalen
- 25 January 2024Viborg 4–2 AC HorsensFriendlies Clubs
- 26 February 2023AC Horsens 0–3 ViborgSuperliga
- 12 September 2022Viborg 2–1 AC HorsensSuperliga
Leading scorers: Viborg and AC Horsens
Viborg
GoalsAssists
- Dorian Hanza41
- C. Nouck32
- M. Søndergaard32
AC Horsens
GoalsAssists
- K. Ehibhatiomhan40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Viborg carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.55 for AC Horsens. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.01 goals for Viborg and 1.33 for AC Horsens. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Viborg rate 0.79 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AC Horsens rate 0.79 and 1.46.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Viborg a 4.3% chance of the title and AC Horsens 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Viborg the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Viborg against 1.33 for AC Horsens. Viborg's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.46 for AC Horsens.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Viborg at home · AC Horsens away
League matches only, Superliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ViborgAC Horsens
Viborg are 2nd after 10 Superliga matches (between 1st and 5th so far); AC Horsens are 6th after 11 (between 5th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Superliga matches this season: Viborg 10, AC Horsens 11.
AC Horsens score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Viborg have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Viborg
- at Odense7 Nov · Superligawin 44%
- vs Randers FC22 Nov · Superligawin 54%
- at Lyngby29 Nov · Superligawin 51%
AC Horsens
- at Aarhus8 Nov · Superligawin 28%
- vs Silkeborg22 Nov · Superligawin 46%
- at Randers FC29 Nov · Superligawin 40%
- vs FC Copenhagen6 Dec · Superligawin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.