Monaco
vs
FC Nordsjaelland
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Monaco 2–0 FC Nordsjaelland
The model makes it 63% Monaco, 22% draw, 15% FC Nordsjaelland — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Monaco 2.17, FC Nordsjaelland 0.81.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,433 settled matches.
One-sided: Monaco are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Monaco's rating is built from 41 Ligue 1 (France) matches and FC Nordsjaelland's from 43 Danish Superliga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,094 matches.
Key facts
- Monaco are 9th on 3 points from 1 game; FC Nordsjaelland are 17th on 1 point from 1 game — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Monaco have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Lorient.
- FC Nordsjaelland are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Lyngby.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Monaco vs FC Nordsjaelland
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Monaco at 63% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 1,080 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Monaco vs FC Nordsjaelland
Monaco
- W2-1away to CSKA Sofia15 October 2026
FC Nordsjaelland
- D1-1away to Heart of Midlothian15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Monaco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Monaco and FC Nordsjaelland
Monaco
GoalsAssists
- Paris Josua Brunner31
FC Nordsjaelland
GoalsAssists
- N. Røjkjær42
- H. Boe Rasmussen30
- V. Berthelsen22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Monaco carry a model rating of 6.99 against 6.68 for FC Nordsjaelland. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.17 goals for Monaco and 0.81 for FC Nordsjaelland. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Monaco rate 1.14 in attack and 0.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Nordsjaelland rate 0.77 and 1.10.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Monaco the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Monaco against 0.81 for FC Nordsjaelland. Monaco's attack/defence rating is 1.14/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.1 for FC Nordsjaelland.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Monaco's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and FC Nordsjaelland's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Monaco at home · FC Nordsjaelland away
League matches only, this season — Monaco in the Ligue 1, FC Nordsjaelland in the Superliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Monaco 7 in the Ligue 1, FC Nordsjaelland 11 in the Superliga.
Monaco score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); FC Nordsjaelland have let in 0 there.
FC Nordsjaelland score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Monaco have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Monaco
- at Le Mans8 Nov · Ligue 1win 51%
- vs Auxerre21 Nov · Ligue 1win 60%
FC Nordsjaelland
- at Randers FC8 Nov · Superligawin 46%
- vs FC Copenhagen22 Nov · Superligawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.