NEOM
vs
Al Kholood
Pro League prediction
Our model says: NEOM 2–1 Al Kholood
The model makes it 55% NEOM, 24% draw, 21% Al Kholood — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: NEOM 2.03, Al Kholood 1.04.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to NEOM: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. NEOM's rating is built from 46 Saudi Pro League matches and Al Kholood's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 716 matches.
Key facts
- NEOM are 5th on 22 points from 12 games; Al Kholood are 11th on 12 points from 11 games — Pro League.
- NEOM have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Al Diriyah.
- Al Kholood have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-5 defeat away to Al-Nassr.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended NEOM 1–2 Al Kholood.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: NEOM vs Al Kholood
Has the model earned this number?
NEOM at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into NEOM vs Al Kholood
NEOM
Pro League
- W2-1away to Al Diriyah30 October 2026
- W2-0Abha24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Al-Nassr20 October 2026
- L0-1Al-Ettifaq17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Hazm10 October 2026
Al Kholood
Pro League
- L3-5away to Al-Nassr29 October 2026
- L0-3Al-Ettifaq24 October 2026
- L2-3away to Al-Faisaly FC15 October 2026
- L0-5Al-Qadisiyah FC9 October 2026
- L0-2away to Al Riyadh13 September 2026
What these results say
- NEOM conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for NEOM had two goals or fewer.
- Al Kholood did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Al Kholood conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al Kholood had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | NEOM | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 22 |
| 11 | Al Kholood | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
NEOM
Chance to finish in the top four · 13% today
Al Kholood
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 19% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: NEOM vs Al Kholood
- 28 February 2026NEOM 1–2 Al KholoodPro League
- 30 October 2025Al Kholood 2–3 NEOMPro League
Leading scorers: NEOM and Al Kholood
NEOM
GoalsAssists
- A. Lacazette72
Al Kholood
GoalsAssists
- J. Domingues63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NEOM a 0.1% chance of the title and Al Kholood 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NEOM the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for NEOM against 1.04 for Al Kholood. NEOM's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.73 for Al Kholood.
How the model reaches 55% for NEOM to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for NEOM to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, NEOM's ratings add 7 points and Al Kholood's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage40%+3
- Both sides at this match's level39%−1
- NEOM's ratings46%+7
- Al Kholood's ratings55%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
NEOM at home · Al Kholood away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: NEOM 12, Al Kholood 11.
NEOM score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Al Kholood have let in 3 there.
Al Kholood score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); NEOM have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
NEOM
- vs Al Taawon26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 50%
- at Al Shabab3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 37%
- vs Al-Ahli Jeddah10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 33%
- at Al-Fayha14 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 43%
Al Kholood
- vs Al-Hilal26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 10%
- at Al-Fateh3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 36%
- at Abha7 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 36%
- vs Al-Hazm10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 37%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.