ES Setif
vs
JS El Biar
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: ES Setif 2–1 JS El Biar
The model makes it 43% ES Setif, 25% draw, 32% JS El Biar — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: ES Setif 1.86, JS El Biar 1.52.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. ES Setif's rating is built from 38 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and JS El Biar's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- ES Setif are 10th on 9 points from 8 games; JS El Biar are 8th on 11 points from 9 games — Ligue 1.
- ES Setif have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to MB Rouisset.
- JS El Biar have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to MC Alger.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ES Setif vs JS El Biar
Has the model earned this number?
ES Setif at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into ES Setif vs JS El Biar
ES Setif
Ligue 1
- D1-1MB Rouisset7 November 2026
- W2-1away to ASO Chlef30 October 2026
- L1-2Témouchent24 October 2026
- D1-1JS Kabylie14 October 2026
- D0-0away to MC Oran8 October 2026
JS El Biar
Ligue 1
- W1-0MC Alger8 November 2026
- L0-1away to JS Kabylie30 October 2026
- D0-0MC Oran23 October 2026
- W4-2away to CS Constantine17 October 2026
- L2-3CR Belouizdad12 October 2026
What these results say
- ES Setif failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- ES Setif scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ES Setif conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Algeria Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | ES Setif | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 9 |
| 8 | JS El Biar | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
ES Setif
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 8% today
JS El Biar
Chance to finish in the top two · 5% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour JS El Biar (eighth, with ES Setif tenth), while our numbers lean to ES Setif. ES Setif rate 0.60 in attack and 1.80 in defence, JS El Biar 0.70 and 1.91 (lower is better in defence), so ES Setif have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ES Setif a 0.2% chance of the title and JS El Biar 1.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on ES Setif v JS El Biar has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 45% / 25% / 30% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 43% / 25% / 32%: the biggest move is ES Setif's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- ES Setif win43%▼ −2
- Draw25%=
- JS El Biar win32%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ES Setif the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for ES Setif against 1.52 for JS El Biar. ES Setif's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.91 for JS El Biar.
How the model reaches 43% for ES Setif to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for ES Setif to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, ES Setif's ratings take away 2 points and JS El Biar's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- ES Setif's ratings44%−2
- JS El Biar's ratings43%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
ES Setif at home · JS El Biar away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: ES Setif 8, JS El Biar 9.
ES Setif score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); JS El Biar have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
ES Setif
- at Olympique Akbou28 Nov · Ligue 1win 26%
- at Khenchela30 Nov · Ligue 1win 36%
- vs USM Alger26 Dec · Ligue 1win 39%
JS El Biar
- vs US Biskra28 Nov · Ligue 1win 68%
- vs ASO Chlef30 Nov · Ligue 1win 59%
- at Khenchela26 Dec · Ligue 1win 39%
- vs MB Rouisset31 Dec · Ligue 1win 46%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.