Zalaegerszegi TE
vs
Vasas
NB I prediction
Our model says: Zalaegerszegi TE 2–1 Vasas
The model makes it 39% Zalaegerszegi TE, 26% draw, 35% Vasas — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Zalaegerszegi TE 1.59, Vasas 1.49.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Zalaegerszegi TE's rating is built from 46 Hungarian NB I matches and Vasas's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 473 matches.
Key facts
- Zalaegerszegi TE are 9th on 13 points from 13 games; Vasas are 7th on 16 points from 13 games — NB I.
- Zalaegerszegi TE have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Paks.
- Vasas have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Ferencvarosi TC.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Vasas 5–0 Zalaegerszegi TE.
More Hungarian NB I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zalaegerszegi TE vs Vasas
Has the model earned this number?
Zalaegerszegi TE at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Zalaegerszegi TE vs Vasas
Zalaegerszegi TE
NB I
- L1-2away to Paks7 November 2026
- W3-0MTK Budapest31 October 2026
- D1-1Kisvarda FC24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Debreceni VSC18 October 2026
- W5-1Nyiregyhaza11 October 2026
Vasas
NB I
- L0-2Ferencvarosi TC8 November 2026
- D2-2away to Gyori ETO FC31 October 2026
- L0-2Paks25 October 2026
- L0-1away to MTK Budapest16 October 2026
- D1-1Kisvarda FC10 October 2026
What these results say
- Zalaegerszegi TE scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zalaegerszegi TE conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Zalaegerszegi TE had three goals or more.
- Vasas did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Vasas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vasas had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 13 |
| 7 | Vasas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Zalaegerszegi TE
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 21% today
Vasas
Chance to finish in the top three · 10% today
From our NB I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Zalaegerszegi TE vs Vasas
- 8 August 2026Vasas 5–0 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 11 February 2026Zalaegerszegi TE 2–1 VasasMagyar Kupa
- 13 May 2023Vasas 1–1 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 19 February 2023Zalaegerszegi TE 0–0 VasasNB I
- 1 October 2022Vasas 1–1 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 13 July 2022Vasas 1–1 Zalaegerszegi TEFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Zalaegerszegi TE and Vasas
Zalaegerszegi TE
GoalsAssists
- Arthur Henrique30
Vasas
GoalsAssists
- J. Urblík33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Vasas (seventh, with Zalaegerszegi TE ninth), while our numbers lean to Zalaegerszegi TE. Zalaegerszegi TE rate 0.64 in attack and 1.57 in defence, Vasas 0.68 and 1.50 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zalaegerszegi TE a 0.1% chance of the title and Vasas 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Zalaegerszegi TE v Vasas has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 36% / 26% / 38% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 39% / 26% / 35%: the biggest move is Zalaegerszegi TE's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Zalaegerszegi TE win39%▲ +3
- Draw26%=
- Vasas win35%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zalaegerszegi TE the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Zalaegerszegi TE against 1.49 for Vasas. Zalaegerszegi TE's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.5 for Vasas.
How the model reaches 39% for Zalaegerszegi TE to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Zalaegerszegi TE to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Zalaegerszegi TE's ratings take away 2 points and Vasas's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage42%+5
- Zalaegerszegi TE's ratings40%−2
- Vasas's ratings39%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Zalaegerszegi TE at home · Vasas away
League matches only, NB I, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Zalaegerszegi TEVasas
Zalaegerszegi TE are 9th after 13 NB I matches (between 5th and 12th so far); Vasas are 7th after 13 (between 1st and 9th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Zalaegerszegi TE 13, Vasas 13.
Zalaegerszegi TE score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Vasas have let in 7 there.
Vasas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Zalaegerszegi TE have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Zalaegerszegi TE
- at Ferencvarosi TC29 Nov · NB Iwin 16%
- vs Gyori ETO FC6 Dec · NB Iwin 29%
- vs Budapest Honved13 Dec · NB Iwin 43%
- at Puskas Academy20 Dec · NB Iwin 28%
- vs Ujpest30 Jan · NB Iwin 41%
Vasas
- vs Budapest Honved28 Nov · NB Iwin 46%
- at Puskas Academy6 Dec · NB Iwin 30%
- vs Ujpest12 Dec · NB Iwin 44%
- at Nyiregyhaza19 Dec · NB Iwin 40%
- vs Debreceni VSC30 Jan · NB Iwin 35%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.