Egnatia Rrogozhinë
vs
Lincoln Red Imps FC
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1–0 Lincoln Red Imps FC
The model makes it 55% Egnatia Rrogozhinë, 26% draw, 19% Lincoln Red Imps FC — fair odds of 1.82, 3.85 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1.82, Lincoln Red Imps FC 0.87.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Egnatia Rrogozhinë: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Egnatia Rrogozhinë's rating is built from its last 6 matches; Lincoln Red Imps FC's from its last 6 matches. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 13 matches for Egnatia Rrogozhinë, 18 for Lincoln Red Imps FC. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,130 matches.
Key facts
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë are 26th on 2 points from 3 games; Lincoln Red Imps FC are 22nd on 3 points from 3 games — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë have not won in their last 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Universitatea Craiova.
- Lincoln Red Imps FC have won 1 of their last 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to HNK Hajduk Split.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lincoln Red Imps FC
Has the model earned this number?
Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lincoln Red Imps FC
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
UEFA Europa Conference League
- L0-2away to Universitatea Craiova5 November 2026
- D1-1away to Aarhus22 October 2026
- D1-1FC Midtjylland15 October 2026
Lincoln Red Imps FC
UEFA Europa Conference League
- W1-0HNK Hajduk Split5 November 2026
- L1-4Twente22 October 2026
- L1-2away to Brann15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 |
| 22 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lincoln Red Imps FC (22nd, with Egnatia Rrogozhinë 26th), while our numbers lean to Egnatia Rrogozhinë. Egnatia Rrogozhinë rate 0.48 in attack and 1.85 in defence, Lincoln Red Imps FC 0.51 and 2.11 (lower is better in defence), so Egnatia Rrogozhinë have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Egnatia Rrogozhinë the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Egnatia Rrogozhinë against 0.87 for Lincoln Red Imps FC. Egnatia Rrogozhinë's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.11 for Lincoln Red Imps FC.
How the model reaches 55% for Egnatia Rrogozhinë to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Egnatia Rrogozhinë to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Egnatia Rrogozhinë's ratings add 4 points and Lincoln Red Imps FC's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage46%+9
- Both sides at this match's level45%−1
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë's ratings49%+4
- Lincoln Red Imps FC's ratings55%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Position by match
Egnatia RrogozhinëLincoln Red Imps FC
Egnatia Rrogozhinë are 26th after 3 UEFA Europa Conference League matches (between 2nd and 26th so far); Lincoln Red Imps FC are 22nd after 3 (between 20th and 34th). How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- vs Kauno Žalgiris10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 51%
- at SC Braga17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 4%
Lincoln Red Imps FC
- vs FC Midtjylland10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 13%
- at Monaco17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 4%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.