Gent
vs
FK Crvena Zvezda
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Gent 1–0 FK Crvena Zvezda
The model makes it 53% Gent, 30% draw, 17% FK Crvena Zvezda — fair odds of 1.89, 3.33 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (19%).
Expected goals: Gent 1.41, FK Crvena Zvezda 0.59.
Both teams to score: 34%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Gent: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Gent's rating is built from 52 Jupiler Pro League matches and FK Crvena Zvezda's from 52 Serbian SuperLiga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 9 matches for Gent, 23 for FK Crvena Zvezda. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,130 matches.
Key facts
- Gent are 18th on 4 points from 3 games; FK Crvena Zvezda are 15th on 4 points from 3 games — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Gent have won 1 of their last 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to KuPS.
- FK Crvena Zvezda have won 1 of their last 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Inter Club d'Escaldes.
- Last 2 meetings: FK Crvena Zvezda 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 November 2020, ended Gent 0–2 FK Crvena Zvezda.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gent vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Has the model earned this number?
Gent at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gent vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Gent
UEFA Europa Conference League
- D0-0away to KuPS5 November 2026
- L0-2away to SC Braga22 October 2026
- W1-0Aarhus15 October 2026
FK Crvena Zvezda
UEFA Europa Conference League
- W2-1Inter Club d'Escaldes5 November 2026
- D2-2FC Copenhagen22 October 2026
- L2-3away to FC Lugano15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Gent | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gent vs FK Crvena Zvezda
- 26 November 2020Gent 0–2 FK Crvena ZvezdaUEFA Europa League
- 5 November 2020FK Crvena Zvezda 2–1 GentUEFA Europa League
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FK Crvena Zvezda (15th, with Gent 18th), while our numbers lean to Gent. Gent rate 0.94 in attack and 0.74 in defence, FK Crvena Zvezda 0.97 and 1.01 (lower is better in defence), so Gent have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gent the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Gent against 0.59 for FK Crvena Zvezda. Gent's attack/defence rating is 0.94/0.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/1.01 for FK Crvena Zvezda.
How the model reaches 53% for Gent to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Gent to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 5 points, Gent's ratings add 5 points and FK Crvena Zvezda's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage46%+9
- Both sides at this match's level41%−5
- Gent's ratings46%+5
- FK Crvena Zvezda's ratings53%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Gent's most recent league matches and FK Crvena Zvezda's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Gent at home · FK Crvena Zvezda away
League matches only, this season — Gent in the Jupiler Pro League, FK Crvena Zvezda in the Super Liga; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Gent 11 in the Jupiler Pro League, FK Crvena Zvezda 15 in the Super Liga.
Gent score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); FK Crvena Zvezda have let in 1 there.
FK Crvena Zvezda score most often in the 46–60 minute window (11 goals); Gent have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Gent
- at Union St. Gilloise29 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 21%
- at FC Thun10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 57%
- vs St. Truiden13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 51%
- vs Brann17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 62%
FK Crvena Zvezda
- at Novi Pazar28 Nov · Super Ligawin 62%
- vs Železničar Pančevo6 Dec · Super Ligawin 58%
- at FC Iberia 199910 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 51%
- vs Trabzonspor17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.