Manchester City
vs
Napoli
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Manchester City 2–1 Napoli
The model makes it 64% Manchester City, 20% draw, 16% Napoli — fair odds of 1.56, 5.00 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Manchester City 2.60, Napoli 1.06.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Manchester City: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Manchester City's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Napoli's from 49 Serie A matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 14 matches for Manchester City, 12 for Napoli. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 722 matches.
Key facts
- Manchester City are 7th on 9 points from 4 games; Napoli are 27th on 3 points from 4 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Manchester City have won 3 of their last 4 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to RB Leipzig.
- Napoli have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to FC Porto.
- Last 5 meetings: Manchester City 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 September 2025, ended Manchester City 2–0 Napoli.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Manchester City vs Napoli
Has the model earned this number?
Manchester City at 64%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Manchester City vs Napoli
Manchester City
UEFA Champions League
- W3-2away to RB Leipzig4 November 2026
- W5-1AEK Athens FC20 October 2026
- L2-4Paris Saint Germain14 October 2026
- W2-0away to FC Porto8 September 2026
Napoli
UEFA Champions League
- L1-4away to FC Porto4 November 2026
- W4-3Bodo/Glimt20 October 2026
- L1-3away to Villarreal13 October 2026
- L0-1Arsenal9 September 2026
What these results say
- Manchester City scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Manchester City won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Manchester City conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Napoli conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Napoli failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Napoli scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Manchester City | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 9 |
| 27 | Napoli | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Manchester City vs Napoli
- 18 September 2025Manchester City 2–0 NapoliUEFA Champions League
- 1 November 2017Napoli 2–4 Manchester CityUEFA Champions League
- 17 October 2017Manchester City 2–1 NapoliUEFA Champions League
- 22 November 2011Napoli 2–1 Manchester CityUEFA Champions League
- 14 September 2011Manchester City 1–1 NapoliUEFA Champions League
Leading scorers: Manchester City and Napoli
Manchester City
GoalsAssists
- E. Haaland50
Napoli
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Manchester City the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.60 expected goals for Manchester City against 1.06 for Napoli. Manchester City's attack/defence rating is 1.54/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.26/0.74 for Napoli.
How the model reaches 64% for Manchester City to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Manchester City to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, Manchester City's ratings add 9 points and Napoli's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 64%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage47%+10
- Manchester City's ratings56%+9
- Napoli's ratings64%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Manchester City at home · Napoli away
League matches only, this season — Manchester City in the Premier League, Napoli in the Serie A; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Manchester City 10 in the Premier League, Napoli 11 in the Serie A.
Manchester City score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Napoli have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Manchester City
- at Arsenal29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Leeds2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 55%
- at Brentford5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- at Barcelona8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 24%
Napoli
- at Sassuolo29 Nov · Serie Awin 55%
- vs Lecce6 Dec · Serie Awin 61%
- vs Club Brugge KV8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 43%
- vs AC Milan13 Dec · Serie Awin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.