Clausura - 21 · 25 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Sportivo Luqueno vs Olimpia Division Profesional - Clausura prediction

Luque

Our model says: Sportivo Luqueno 1–2 Olimpia

The model makes it 25% Sportivo Luqueno, 23% draw, 52% Olimpia — fair odds of 4.00, 4.35 and 1.92.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).

Expected goals: Sportivo Luqueno 1.37, Olimpia 2.21.

Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Olimpia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Sportivo Luqueno's rating is built from 41 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Olimpia's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Sportivo Luqueno are 8th on 22 points from 19 games; Olimpia are top on 42 points from 19 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
  • Sportivo Luqueno have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to 2 de Mayo.
  • Olimpia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Club Guarani.
  • Last 6 meetings: Olimpia 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 October 2026, ended Olimpia 1–1 Sportivo Luqueno.

More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Sportivo Luqueno vs Olimpia

67%
Both teams to score
69%
Over 2.5 goals
31%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Sportivo Luqueno win Draw Olimpia win
  1. 1–29%
  2. 1–19%
  3. 1–37%
  4. 0–27%
  5. 2–26%
  6. 2–16%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read Sportivo Luqueno first; the other scorelines share the remaining 50%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Olimpia at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Sportivo Luqueno vs Olimpia

Sportivo Luqueno

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W3-02 de Mayo9 November 2026
  • W5-0away to Rubio NU5 November 2026
  • L0-3Nacional Asuncion31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Libertad Asuncion23 October 2026
  • W3-2Club Sp. San Lorenzo18 October 2026

Olimpia

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W3-1away to Club Guarani7 November 2026
  • W4-1Deportivo Recoleta5 November 2026
  • W2-0away to Cerro Porteno1 November 2026
  • W3-2away to Sportivo Ameliano25 October 2026
  • W3-02 de Mayo17 October 2026

What these results say

  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sportivo Luqueno had three goals or more.
  • Olimpia won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Olimpia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Olimpia had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Sportivo Luqueno1971112533-822
1Olimpia1913333714+2342

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Sportivo Luqueno

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 8% today

Win <1%
Draw 4%
Defeat 12%

From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Sportivo Luqueno vs Olimpia

  • 1 October 2026Olimpia 1–1 Sportivo LuquenoCopa Paraguay
  • 13 September 2026Olimpia 3–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 23 May 2026Sportivo Luqueno 1–2 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 17 March 2026Olimpia 1–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 21 November 2025Sportivo Luqueno 2–4 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 30 August 2025Olimpia 2–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Clausura

Leading scorers: Sportivo Luqueno and Olimpia

Sportivo Luqueno

GoalsAssists

  • I. Maggi52

Olimpia

GoalsAssists

  • G. Ávalos83
  • A. Alcaraz71
  • R. Benitez43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sportivo Luqueno a 0% chance of the title and Olimpia 99.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Sportivo Luqueno Olimpia
0.7 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.92
1.99 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.2
1.37 Model expected goals (this match) 2.21

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Olimpia the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Sportivo Luqueno against 2.21 for Olimpia. Sportivo Luqueno's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.2 for Olimpia.

Sportivo Luqueno carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.72 for Olimpia.

How the model reaches 52% for Olimpia to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Olimpia to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Sportivo Luqueno's ratings add 12 points and Olimpia's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 52%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Sportivo Luqueno's ratings41%+12
  4. Olimpia's ratings52%+11

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Sportivo LuquenoOlimpia
19Matches19
7W 1D 11LRecord13W 3D 3L
25 1.3 per gameGoals scored37 1.9 per game
33 1.7 per gameGoals conceded14 0.7 per game
4 of 19Clean sheets7 of 19
7 of 19Failed to score4 of 19
2 of 3Penalties scored1 of 1
35 1.8 per gameYellow cards40 2.1 per game
1Red cards0
4-1-4-1 7×Usual shape4-1-4-1 7×

Sportivo Luqueno at home · Olimpia away

10Played10
4W 0D 6LRecord7W 1D 2L
12–18Goals for – against16–8
2 of 10Clean sheets4 of 10

League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Sportivo Luqueno 19, Olimpia 19.

Sportivo Luqueno scored 035258
Olimpia conceded 123062

Sportivo Luqueno score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Olimpia have let in 2 there.

Olimpia scored 658468
Sportivo Luqueno conceded 719647

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Sportivo Luqueno

  • at Deportivo Recoleta29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 32%

Olimpia

  • vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 75%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.