Lille
vs
Bayern München
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Lille 1–2 Bayern München
The model makes it 19% Lille, 22% draw, 59% Bayern München — fair odds of 5.26, 4.55 and 1.69.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Lille 1.05, Bayern München 2.24.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Bayern München are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Lille's rating is built from 44 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Bayern München's from 43 Bundesliga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 16 matches for Lille, 18 for Bayern München. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 722 matches.
Key facts
- Lille are 35th on 1 point from 4 games; Bayern München are 13th on 8 points from 4 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Lille have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Bodo/Glimt.
- Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 4 games (2 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Atletico Madrid.
- Last 2 meetings: Bayern München 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 November 2012, ended Bayern Munich 6–1 Lille.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lille vs Bayern München
Has the model earned this number?
Bayern München at 59%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lille vs Bayern München
Lille
UEFA Champions League
- D0-0away to Bodo/Glimt3 November 2026
- L2-4Galatasaray21 October 2026
- L0-3away to Arsenal13 October 2026
- L2-3Real Betis8 September 2026
Bayern München
UEFA Champions League
- W2-0away to Atletico Madrid3 November 2026
- D2-2Arsenal21 October 2026
- D3-3away to Viking13 October 2026
- W5-0Bodo/Glimt10 September 2026
What these results say
- Lille did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Lille conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Lille had three goals or more.
- Bayern München went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Bayern München scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Bayern München had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Lille | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 1 |
| 13 | Bayern München | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lille vs Bayern München
- 7 November 2012Bayern Munich 6–1 LilleUEFA Champions League
- 23 October 2012Lille 0–1 Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League
Leading scorers: Lille and Bayern München
Lille
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Bayern München
GoalsAssists
- H. Kane43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayern München the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Lille against 2.24 for Bayern München. Lille's attack/defence rating is 0.98/0.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.76/0.68 for Bayern München.
How the model reaches 59% for Bayern München to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Bayern München to win. Then home advantage takes away 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Lille's ratings add 13 points and Bayern München's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 59%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage29%−9
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Lille's ratings41%+13
- Bayern München's ratings59%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Lille at home · Bayern München away
League matches only, this season — Lille in the Ligue 1, Bayern München in the Bundesliga; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Lille 10 in the Ligue 1, Bayern München 9 in the Bundesliga.
Lille score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Bayern München have let in 0 there.
Bayern München score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Lille have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lille
- at Le Mans28 Nov · Ligue 1win 53%
- vs Auxerre5 Dec · Ligue 1win 64%
- at VfB Stuttgart9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 34%
- at Lorient13 Dec · Ligue 1win 41%
Bayern München
- at Hamburger SV28 Nov · Bundesligawin 71%
- vs SC Paderborn 074 Dec · Bundesligawin 75%
- vs Slavia Praha8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 57%
- at 1899 Hoffenheim13 Dec · Bundesligawin 65%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.