Slavia Praha
vs
Villarreal
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Slavia Praha 2–1 Villarreal
The model makes it 44% Slavia Praha, 25% draw, 31% Villarreal — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Slavia Praha 1.87, Villarreal 1.50.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Slavia Praha's rating is built from 48 Czech Liga matches and Villarreal's from 50 La Liga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 12 matches for Slavia Praha, 12 for Villarreal. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 722 matches.
Key facts
- Slavia Praha are 34th on 1 point from 4 games; Villarreal are 28th on 3 points from 4 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Slavia Praha have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Arsenal.
- Villarreal have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-6 defeat at home to Paris Saint Germain.
- Last 2 meetings: Villarreal 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 November 2017, ended Slavia Praha 0–2 Villarreal.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Slavia Praha vs Villarreal
Has the model earned this number?
Slavia Praha at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Slavia Praha vs Villarreal
Slavia Praha
UEFA Champions League
- L1-2Arsenal4 November 2026
- D2-2away to Fenerbahçe20 October 2026
- L0-2away to Sabah FA13 October 2026
- L2-3Lens10 September 2026
Villarreal
UEFA Champions League
- L0-6Paris Saint Germain3 November 2026
- L3-4away to Liverpool20 October 2026
- W3-1Napoli13 October 2026
- L2-3away to Borussia Dortmund8 September 2026
What these results say
- Slavia Praha did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Slavia Praha conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Slavia Praha scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Villarreal conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Villarreal had three goals or more.
- Villarreal failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | Slavia Praha | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 1 |
| 28 | Villarreal | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Slavia Praha vs Villarreal
- 2 November 2017Slavia Praha 0–2 VillarrealUEFA Europa League
- 19 October 2017Villarreal 2–2 Slavia PrahaUEFA Europa League
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Villarreal (28th, with Slavia Praha 34th), while our numbers lean to Slavia Praha. Slavia Praha rate 1.36 in attack and 0.71 in defence, Villarreal 1.22 and 0.87 (lower is better in defence), so Slavia Praha have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slavia Praha the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Slavia Praha against 1.50 for Villarreal. Slavia Praha's attack/defence rating is 1.36/0.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.22/0.87 for Villarreal.
How the model reaches 44% for Slavia Praha to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Slavia Praha to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, Slavia Praha's ratings take away 2 points and Villarreal's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage47%+10
- Slavia Praha's ratings45%−2
- Villarreal's ratings44%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Slavia Praha at home · Villarreal away
League matches only, this season — Slavia Praha in the Czech Liga, Villarreal in the La Liga; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Slavia Praha 14 in the Czech Liga, Villarreal 12 in the La Liga.
Slavia Praha score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Villarreal have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Slavia Praha
- vs Baník Ostrava29 Nov · Czech Ligawin 77%
- at Pardubice4 Dec · Czech Ligawin 60%
- at Bayern München8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 21%
- vs Slovan Liberec13 Dec · Czech Ligawin 60%
Villarreal
- at Celta Vigo29 Nov · La Ligawin 38%
- vs Real Sociedad6 Dec · La Ligawin 51%
- vs Sabah FA8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 61%
- vs Rayo Vallecano13 Dec · La Ligawin 56%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.