Sporting CP
vs
Manchester United
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Sporting CP 2–1 Manchester United
The model makes it 53% Sporting CP, 22% draw, 25% Manchester United — fair odds of 1.89, 4.55 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Sporting CP 2.35, Manchester United 1.45.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Sporting CP's rating is built from 45 Primeira Liga matches and Manchester United's from 48 Premier League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 15 matches for Sporting CP, 4 for Manchester United. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 722 matches.
Key facts
- Sporting CP are 10th on 9 points from 4 games; Manchester United are 17th on 6 points from 4 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Sporting CP have won 3 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Shakhtar Donetsk.
- Manchester United have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to AS Roma.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sporting CP vs Manchester United
Has the model earned this number?
Sporting CP at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sporting CP vs Manchester United
Sporting CP
UEFA Champions League
- W1-0away to Shakhtar Donetsk3 November 2026
- L2-3Lask Linz21 October 2026
- W2-0away to Lens13 October 2026
- W3-1Galatasaray9 September 2026
Manchester United
UEFA Champions League
- W3-2AS Roma3 November 2026
- L1-4away to Como21 October 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Madrid13 October 2026
- W4-0Sabah FA10 September 2026
What these results say
- Sporting CP scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sporting CP won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Manchester United scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Manchester United conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Manchester United had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sporting CP | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Sporting CP and Manchester United
Sporting CP
GoalsAssists
- L. Suárez40
Manchester United
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting CP the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Sporting CP against 1.45 for Manchester United. Sporting CP's attack/defence rating is 1.58/0.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.33/1.02 for Manchester United.
How the model reaches 53% for Sporting CP to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Sporting CP to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Sporting CP's ratings add 1 point and Manchester United's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage47%+10
- Both sides at this match's level48%+1
- Sporting CP's ratings49%+1
- Manchester United's ratings53%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sporting CP at home · Manchester United away
League matches only, this season — Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga, Manchester United in the Premier League; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Sporting CP 11 in the Primeira Liga, Manchester United 10 in the Premier League.
Sporting CP score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Manchester United have let in 2 there.
Manchester United score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Sporting CP have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sporting CP
- at FC Porto29 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 26%
- vs Maritimo6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 82%
- at AS Roma8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 22%
- at GIL Vicente13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 51%
- vs Estoril20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 78%
Manchester United
- vs Brentford28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 42%
- at Newcastle2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 43%
- vs Coventry5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 60%
- vs RB Leipzig8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 40%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.