Feyenoord
vs
FC Porto
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Feyenoord 1–2 FC Porto
The model makes it 28% Feyenoord, 26% draw, 46% FC Porto — fair odds of 3.57, 3.85 and 2.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Feyenoord 1.31, FC Porto 1.80.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
One-sided: FC Porto are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Feyenoord's rating is built from 46 Eredivisie matches and FC Porto's from 45 Primeira Liga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 14 matches for Feyenoord, 16 for FC Porto. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 722 matches.
Key facts
- Feyenoord are 32nd on 3 points from 4 games; FC Porto are 26th on 3 points from 4 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Feyenoord have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Inter.
- FC Porto have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Napoli.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 December 2019, ended FC Porto 3–2 Feyenoord.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Feyenoord vs FC Porto
Has the model earned this number?
FC Porto at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Feyenoord vs FC Porto
Feyenoord
UEFA Champions League
- L0-3Inter3 November 2026
- L0-1away to Real Betis21 October 2026
- W3-2Como14 October 2026
- L1-5away to Barcelona9 September 2026
FC Porto
UEFA Champions League
- W4-1Napoli4 November 2026
- L0-1PSV Eindhoven20 October 2026
- L2-3away to Real Betis14 October 2026
- L0-2Manchester City8 September 2026
What these results say
- Feyenoord conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Feyenoord failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Feyenoord had three goals or more.
- FC Porto conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- FC Porto failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Feyenoord | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
| 26 | FC Porto | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Feyenoord vs FC Porto
- 12 December 2019FC Porto 3–2 FeyenoordUEFA Europa League
- 3 October 2019Feyenoord 2–0 FC PortoUEFA Europa League
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Porto the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Feyenoord against 1.80 for FC Porto. Feyenoord's attack/defence rating is 1.23/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.49/0.59 for FC Porto.
How the model reaches 46% for FC Porto to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for FC Porto to win. Then home advantage takes away 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Feyenoord's ratings add 9 points and FC Porto's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage29%−9
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Feyenoord's ratings37%+9
- FC Porto's ratings46%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Feyenoord at home · FC Porto away
League matches only, this season — Feyenoord in the Eredivisie, FC Porto in the Primeira Liga; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Feyenoord 12 in the Eredivisie, FC Porto 11 in the Primeira Liga.
FC Porto score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Feyenoord have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Feyenoord
- vs Ajax29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 42%
- at Willem II5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 79%
- at Viking8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 32%
- at Groningen13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 50%
FC Porto
- vs Sporting CP29 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 48%
- at Santa Clara6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 53%
- at Liverpool9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 39%
- vs Estrela13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 79%
- at Famalicao20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 56%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.