Clausura - 21 · 25 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Sportivo Trinidense vs Deportivo Recoleta Division Profesional - Clausura prediction

Our model says: Sportivo Trinidense 2–0 Deportivo Recoleta

The model makes it 61% Sportivo Trinidense, 22% draw, 17% Deportivo Recoleta — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).

Expected goals: Sportivo Trinidense 2.23, Deportivo Recoleta 0.95.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to Sportivo Trinidense: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Sportivo Trinidense's rating is built from 41 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Deportivo Recoleta's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Sportivo Trinidense are 2nd on 34 points from 19 games; Deportivo Recoleta are 11th on 16 points from 19 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
  • Sportivo Trinidense have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Sportivo Ameliano.
  • Deportivo Recoleta have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Cerro Porteno.
  • Last 6 meetings: Sportivo Trinidense 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 September 2026, ended Deportivo Recoleta 1–3 Sportivo Trinidense.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Sportivo Trinidense vs Deportivo Recoleta

55%
Both teams to score
62%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Sportivo Trinidense win Draw Deportivo Recoleta win
  1. 2–010%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 1–19%
  4. 1–09%
  5. 3–08%
  6. 3–17%
  7. 2–25%

Scores read Sportivo Trinidense first; the other scorelines share the remaining 42%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Sportivo Trinidense at 61%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Sportivo Trinidense vs Deportivo Recoleta

Sportivo Trinidense

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W3-0Sportivo Ameliano8 November 2026
  • D0-0away to 2 de Mayo3 November 2026
  • L2-4Rubio NU30 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Nacional Asuncion24 October 2026
  • W1-0Libertad Asuncion18 October 2026

Deportivo Recoleta

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • D1-1away to Cerro Porteno8 November 2026
  • L1-4away to Olimpia5 November 2026
  • W3-0Sportivo Ameliano31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to 2 de Mayo24 October 2026
  • W1-0Rubio NU16 October 2026

What these results say

  • Sportivo Trinidense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sportivo Trinidense kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Deportivo Recoleta scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Sportivo Trinidense1910453118+1334
11Deportivo Recoleta1944112133-1216

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Sportivo Trinidense

Chance to finish in the top four · 87% today

Win 95%
Draw 76%
Defeat 63%

Deportivo Recoleta

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 82% today

Win 51%
Draw 78%
Defeat 89%

From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Sportivo Trinidense vs Deportivo Recoleta

  • 12 September 2026Deportivo Recoleta 1–3 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 23 March 2026Sportivo Trinidense 3–2 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 23 January 2026Deportivo Recoleta 1–1 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 14 September 2025Sportivo Trinidense 2–3 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 4 July 2025Deportivo Recoleta 2–4 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 26 May 2025Deportivo Recoleta 1–2 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Apertura

Leading scorers: Sportivo Trinidense and Deportivo Recoleta

Sportivo Trinidense

GoalsAssists

  • F. Romero71

Deportivo Recoleta

GoalsAssists

  • A. Wlk131
  • A. González51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sportivo Trinidense a 0.2% chance of the title and Deportivo Recoleta 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Sportivo Trinidense Deportivo Recoleta
0.73 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.61
1.29 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.88
2.23 Model expected goals (this match) 0.95

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sportivo Trinidense the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Sportivo Trinidense against 0.95 for Deportivo Recoleta. Sportivo Trinidense's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.88 for Deportivo Recoleta.

Sportivo Trinidense carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.29 for Deportivo Recoleta.

How the model reaches 61% for Sportivo Trinidense to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sportivo Trinidense to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Sportivo Trinidense's ratings add 7 points and Deportivo Recoleta's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 61%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level45%+1
  4. Sportivo Trinidense's ratings52%+7
  5. Deportivo Recoleta's ratings61%+9

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Sportivo TrinidenseDeportivo Recoleta
19Matches19
10W 4D 5LRecord4W 4D 11L
31 1.6 per gameGoals scored21 1.1 per game
18 0.9 per gameGoals conceded33 1.7 per game
7 of 19Clean sheets3 of 19
4 of 19Failed to score4 of 19
3 of 5Penalties scored2 of 2
39 2.1 per gameYellow cards43 2.3 per game
4Red cards4
4-1-4-1 11×Usual shape4-4-2 17×

Sportivo Trinidense at home · Deportivo Recoleta away

10Played10
5W 1D 4LRecord1W 3D 6L
16–12Goals for – against8–18
3 of 10Clean sheets1 of 10

League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Sportivo Trinidense 19, Deportivo Recoleta 19.

Sportivo Trinidense scored 2343512
Deportivo Recoleta conceded 835529

Sportivo Trinidense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Deportivo Recoleta have let in 9 there.

Deportivo Recoleta scored 422653
Sportivo Trinidense conceded 442225

Deportivo Recoleta score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Sportivo Trinidense have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Sportivo Trinidense

  • at Club Guarani29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 31%

Deportivo Recoleta

  • vs Sportivo Luqueno29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 44%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.