Inter
vs
VfB Stuttgart
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Inter 2–1 VfB Stuttgart
The model makes it 64% Inter, 20% draw, 16% VfB Stuttgart — fair odds of 1.56, 5.00 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Inter 2.58, VfB Stuttgart 1.07.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Inter: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Inter's rating is built from 49 Serie A matches and VfB Stuttgart's from 43 Bundesliga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 13 matches for Inter, 16 for VfB Stuttgart. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 722 matches.
Key facts
- Inter are 15th on 6 points from 4 games; VfB Stuttgart are 14th on 7 points from 4 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Inter have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Feyenoord.
- VfB Stuttgart have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Galatasaray.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Inter vs VfB Stuttgart
Has the model earned this number?
Inter at 64%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Inter vs VfB Stuttgart
Inter
UEFA Champions League
- W3-0away to Feyenoord3 November 2026
- W1-0Shakhtar Donetsk21 October 2026
- L3-4Club Brugge KV13 October 2026
- L1-2away to Real Madrid8 September 2026
VfB Stuttgart
UEFA Champions League
- L0-2away to Galatasaray3 November 2026
- D1-1Atletico Madrid20 October 2026
- W3-0away to Slovan Bratislava14 October 2026
- W3-1Viking9 September 2026
What these results say
- Inter scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Inter had three goals or more.
- VfB Stuttgart scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- VfB Stuttgart conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Inter | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 14 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Inter and VfB Stuttgart
Inter
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
VfB Stuttgart
GoalsAssists
- E. Demirović40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour VfB Stuttgart (14th, with Inter 15th), while our numbers lean to Inter. Inter rate 1.79 in attack and 0.73 in defence, VfB Stuttgart 1.14 and 0.93 (lower is better in defence), so Inter have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.58 expected goals for Inter against 1.07 for VfB Stuttgart. Inter's attack/defence rating is 1.79/0.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.14/0.93 for VfB Stuttgart.
How the model reaches 64% for Inter to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Inter to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, Inter's ratings add 9 points and VfB Stuttgart's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 64%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage47%+10
- Inter's ratings56%+9
- VfB Stuttgart's ratings64%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Inter at home · VfB Stuttgart away
League matches only, this season — Inter in the Serie A, VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Inter 11 in the Serie A, VfB Stuttgart 9 in the Bundesliga.
Inter score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); VfB Stuttgart have let in 5 there.
VfB Stuttgart score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Inter have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Inter
- vs Genoa29 Nov · Serie Awin 65%
- at Frosinone6 Dec · Serie Awin 54%
- at Borussia Dortmund9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 33%
- vs Torino13 Dec · Serie Awin 69%
VfB Stuttgart
- vs Eintracht Frankfurt28 Nov · Bundesligawin 51%
- at SV Elversberg6 Dec · Bundesligawin 38%
- vs Lille9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 38%
- vs Union Berlin12 Dec · Bundesligawin 60%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.