League Stage - 5 · 25 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Atletico Madrid vs Viking UEFA Champions League prediction

Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid

Our model says: Atletico Madrid 3–1 Viking

The model makes it 72% Atletico Madrid, 16% draw, 12% Viking — fair odds of 1.39, 6.25 and 8.33.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).

Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 3.24, Viking 1.12.

Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%, under 2.5: 19%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Atletico Madrid are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Atletico Madrid's rating is built from 50 La Liga matches and Viking's from 56 Eliteserien matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 20 matches for Atletico Madrid, 10 for Viking. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 722 matches.

Key facts

  • Atletico Madrid are 23rd on 4 points from 4 games; Viking are 22nd on 4 points from 4 games — UEFA Champions League.
  • Atletico Madrid have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Bayern München.
  • Viking have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Sabah FA.

More Champions League predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Atletico Madrid vs Viking

65%
Both teams to score
81%
Over 2.5 goals
19%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Atletico Madrid win Draw Viking win
  1. 3–18%
  2. 2–18%
  3. 3–07%
  4. 2–07%
  5. 4–17%
  6. 4–06%
  7. 1–15%

Scores read Atletico Madrid first; the other scorelines share the remaining 53%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Madrid at 72%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Atletico Madrid vs Viking

Atletico Madrid

UEFA Champions League

  • L0-2Bayern München3 November 2026
  • D1-1away to VfB Stuttgart20 October 2026
  • W2-0Manchester United13 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Liverpool9 September 2026

Viking

UEFA Champions League

  • W4-1Sabah FA4 November 2026
  • L1-3away to Aston Villa21 October 2026
  • D3-3Bayern München13 October 2026
  • L1-3away to VfB Stuttgart9 September 2026

What these results say

  • Atletico Madrid failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Atletico Madrid scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Atletico Madrid conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Viking scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Viking conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Viking had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
23Atletico Madrid411245-14
22Viking4112910-14

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Leading scorers: Atletico Madrid and Viking

Atletico Madrid

No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Viking

GoalsAssists

  • Z. Tripić43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Viking (22nd, with Atletico Madrid 23rd), while our numbers lean to Atletico Madrid. Atletico Madrid rate 1.35 in attack and 0.70 in defence, Viking 1.12 and 0.95 (lower is better in defence), so Atletico Madrid have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the table does not yet show.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Atletico Madrid Viking
1.35 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.12
0.7 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.95
3.24 Model expected goals (this match) 1.12

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Atletico Madrid the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.24 expected goals for Atletico Madrid against 1.12 for Viking. Atletico Madrid's attack/defence rating is 1.35/0.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.12/0.95 for Viking.

Atletico Madrid carry a model rating of 7.18 against 6.93 for Viking.

How the model reaches 72% for Atletico Madrid to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Atletico Madrid to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Atletico Madrid's ratings add 11 points and Viking's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 72%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage47%+10
  3. Both sides at this match's level48%+1
  4. Atletico Madrid's ratings59%+11
  5. Viking's ratings72%+13

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Atletico MadridViking
12Matches26
9W 1D 2LRecord20W 2D 4L
23 1.9 per gameGoals scored69 2.7 per game
10 0.8 per gameGoals conceded27 1.0 per game
6 of 12Clean sheets7 of 26
1 of 12Failed to score1 of 26
2 of 2Penalties scored4 of 7
28 2.3 per gameYellow cards54 2.1 per game
1Red cards3
4-4-2 8×Usual shape4-1-4-1 9×

Atletico Madrid at home · Viking away

6Played13
4W 1D 1LRecord7W 2D 4L
12–5Goals for – against20–13
3 of 6Clean sheets4 of 13

League matches only, this season — Atletico Madrid in the La Liga, Viking in the Eliteserien; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Atletico Madrid 12 in the La Liga, Viking 26 in the Eliteserien.

Atletico Madrid scored 223538
Viking conceded 526722

Atletico Madrid score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Viking have let in 2 there.

Viking scored 1691015711
Atletico Madrid conceded 002233

Viking score most often in the 0–15 minute window (16 goals); Atletico Madrid have let in 0 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Atletico Madrid

  • at Elche28 Nov · La Ligawin 50%
  • at Barcelona2 Dec · La Ligawin 24%
  • vs Real Betis6 Dec · La Ligawin 51%
  • at PSV Eindhoven9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 32%

Viking

  • vs Valerenga29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 66%
  • at Molde4 Dec · Eliteserienwin 47%
  • vs Feyenoord8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 44%
  • vs Ham-Kam13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 73%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.