Radomlje
vs
Nafta
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Radomlje 2–1 Nafta
The model makes it 38% Radomlje, 26% draw, 36% Nafta — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Radomlje 1.57, Nafta 1.53.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,308 settled matches.
A tight game: Radomlje and Nafta are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Radomlje's rating is built from 48 Slovenian PrvaLiga matches and Nafta's from 17, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Radomlje are bottom on 8 points from 14 games; Nafta are 6th on 19 points from 15 games — 1. SNL.
- Radomlje have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Celje.
- Nafta are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Olimpija Ljubljana.
- Last 5 meetings: Nafta 3 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 4 September 2026, ended Nafta 3–1 Radomlje.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Radomlje vs Nafta
Has the model earned this number?
Radomlje at 38%: of 4,766 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Radomlje vs Nafta
Radomlje
1. SNL
- L1-2Celje8 November 2026
- L0-5away to Aluminij31 October 2026
- D1-1Mura27 October 2026
- D2-2away to Bravo17 October 2026
- D3-3Koper10 October 2026
Nafta
1. SNL
- D1-1Olimpija Ljubljana6 November 2026
- L0-4away to Celje1 November 2026
- D0-0Aluminij28 October 2026
- D0-0away to Mura17 October 2026
- W1-0Bravo11 October 2026
What these results say
- Radomlje did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Radomlje conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Radomlje scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nafta failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Nafta had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Radomlje | 14 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 8 |
| 6 | Nafta | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Radomlje vs Nafta
- 4 September 2026Nafta 3–1 Radomlje1. SNL
- 8 April 2025Radomlje 4–1 Nafta1. SNL
- 7 February 2025Nafta 2–1 Radomlje1. SNL
- 4 October 2024Radomlje 2–0 Nafta1. SNL
- 26 July 2024Nafta 2–1 Radomlje1. SNL
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Nafta (sixth, with Radomlje tenth), while our numbers lean to Radomlje. Radomlje rate 0.61 in attack and 2.40 in defence, Nafta 0.53 and 1.58 (lower is better in defence), so Radomlje have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 11-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Radomlje the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Radomlje against 1.53 for Nafta. Radomlje's attack/defence rating is 0.61/2.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.58 for Nafta.
How the model reaches 38% for Radomlje to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Radomlje to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Radomlje's ratings take away 2 points and Nafta's ratings take away 5 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Radomlje's ratings43%−2
- Nafta's ratings38%−5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Radomlje at home · Nafta away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Radomlje 14, Nafta 15.
Radomlje score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Nafta have let in 5 there.
Nafta score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Radomlje have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Radomlje
- at Celje2 Dec · 1. SNLwin 9%
- at Maribor5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 15%
- vs Brinje-Grosuplje30 Jan · 1. SNLwin 45%
- at Koper6 Feb · 1. SNLwin 10%
Nafta
- vs Brinje-Grosuplje5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 49%
- vs Koper30 Jan · 1. SNLwin 28%
- at Bravo6 Feb · 1. SNLwin 23%
- vs Mura10 Feb · 1. SNLwin 49%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.