Celta de Vigo II
vs
Valladolid
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Celta de Vigo II 2–1 Valladolid
The model makes it 41% Celta de Vigo II, 25% draw, 34% Valladolid — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Celta de Vigo II 1.90, Valladolid 1.68.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Celta de Vigo II's rating is built from 13 Segunda División matches and Valladolid's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,076 matches.
Key facts
- Celta de Vigo II are 16th on 13 points from 13 games; Valladolid are 12th on 18 points from 13 games — Segunda División.
- Celta de Vigo II are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Burgos.
- Valladolid have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Sporting Gijon.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Celta de Vigo II vs Valladolid
Has the model earned this number?
Celta de Vigo II at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Celta de Vigo II vs Valladolid
Celta de Vigo II
Segunda División
- L1-2away to Burgos7 November 2026
- D2-2Cordoba31 October 2026
- L1-5away to Girona24 October 2026
- D1-1Tenerife19 October 2026
- W4-1Real Sociedad II10 October 2026
Valladolid
Segunda División
- W2-1away to Sporting Gijon8 November 2026
- W4-3Leganes2 November 2026
- L1-2away to Granada CF23 October 2026
- L2-3Eldense18 October 2026
- W5-0Albacete12 October 2026
What these results say
- Celta de Vigo II scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Celta de Vigo II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Celta de Vigo II.
- Valladolid scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Valladolid had three goals or more.
- Valladolid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 13 |
| 12 | Valladolid | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Celta de Vigo II
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 32% today
Valladolid
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 8% today
From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Leading scorers: Celta de Vigo II and Valladolid
Celta de Vigo II
GoalsAssists
- A. Marin81
Valladolid
GoalsAssists
- Adrian Arnuncio51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Valladolid (12th, with Celta de Vigo II 16th), while our numbers lean to Celta de Vigo II. Celta de Vigo II rate 0.78 in attack and 1.87 in defence, Valladolid 0.75 and 1.57 (lower is better in defence), so Celta de Vigo II have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Celta de Vigo II a 0% chance of the title and Valladolid 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Celta de Vigo II v Valladolid has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 43% / 24% / 33% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 41% / 25% / 34%: the biggest move is Celta de Vigo II's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Celta de Vigo II win41%▼ −2
- Draw25%▲ +1
- Valladolid win34%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celta de Vigo II the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Celta de Vigo II against 1.68 for Valladolid. Celta de Vigo II's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.57 for Valladolid.
How the model reaches 41% for Celta de Vigo II to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Celta de Vigo II to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Celta de Vigo II's ratings take away 1 point and Valladolid's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Both sides at this match's level45%+2
- Celta de Vigo II's ratings44%−1
- Valladolid's ratings41%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Celta de Vigo II at home · Valladolid away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Celta de Vigo IIValladolid
Celta de Vigo II are 16th after 13 Segunda División matches (between 3rd and 17th so far); Valladolid are 12th after 13 (between 9th and 21st). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Celta de Vigo II 13, Valladolid 13.
Celta de Vigo II score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Valladolid have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Celta de Vigo II
- at Oviedo29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 23%
- vs Mallorca6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
- at Las Palmas13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 25%
- vs Eldense20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 45%
Valladolid
- vs Real Sociedad II29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 45%
- at Girona6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 20%
- vs Tenerife13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 44%
- at Almeria20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 19%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.