Sporting Gijon
vs
Las Palmas
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Sporting Gijon 1–0 Las Palmas
The model makes it 42% Sporting Gijon, 28% draw, 30% Las Palmas — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sporting Gijon 1.48, Las Palmas 1.19.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Sporting Gijon's rating is built from 55 Segunda División matches and Las Palmas's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,076 matches.
Key facts
- Sporting Gijon are 7th on 22 points from 13 games; Las Palmas are 10th on 20 points from 13 games — Segunda División.
- Sporting Gijon have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Valladolid.
- Las Palmas are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Eldense.
- Last 6 meetings: Las Palmas 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 March 2026, ended Las Palmas 1–0 Sporting Gijon.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sporting Gijon vs Las Palmas
Has the model earned this number?
Sporting Gijon at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sporting Gijon vs Las Palmas
Sporting Gijon
Segunda División
- L1-2Valladolid8 November 2026
- W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC1 November 2026
- L0-4away to Castellón25 October 2026
- W2-1Albacete17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Cadiz11 October 2026
Las Palmas
Segunda División
- W2-0Eldense9 November 2026
- W3-2away to Oviedo2 November 2026
- W1-0Real Sociedad II24 October 2026
- L0-3Castellón17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Mallorca11 October 2026
What these results say
- Sporting Gijon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Las Palmas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sporting Gijon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 22 |
| 10 | Las Palmas | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Gijon vs Las Palmas
- 22 March 2026Las Palmas 1–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 2 November 2025Sporting Gijon 0–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 26 March 2023Las Palmas 1–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 3 December 2022Sporting Gijon 0–1 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 29 May 2022Sporting Gijon 0–1 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 5 December 2021Las Palmas 1–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División
Leading scorers: Sporting Gijon and Las Palmas
Sporting Gijon
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Las Palmas
GoalsAssists
- Jesé41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sporting Gijon a 0.3% chance of the title and Las Palmas 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Sporting Gijon v Las Palmas has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Sporting Gijon's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Sporting Gijon win42%▼ −2
- Draw28%=
- Las Palmas win30%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting Gijon the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Sporting Gijon against 1.19 for Las Palmas. Sporting Gijon's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.43 for Las Palmas.
How the model reaches 42% for Sporting Gijon to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sporting Gijon to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Sporting Gijon's ratings change nothing and Las Palmas's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Both sides at this match's level42%−1
- Sporting Gijon's ratings42%±0
- Las Palmas's ratings42%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sporting Gijon at home · Las Palmas away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Sporting GijonLas Palmas
Sporting Gijon are 7th after 13 Segunda División matches (between 1st and 14th so far); Las Palmas are 10th after 13 (between 1st and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Sporting Gijon 13, Las Palmas 13.
Sporting Gijon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Las Palmas have let in 5 there.
Las Palmas score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Sporting Gijon have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sporting Gijon
- at Almeria29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 20%
- vs Granada CF6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 40%
- at Eibar13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 23%
- vs Leganes20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 53%
Las Palmas
- vs FC Andorra29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 46%
- at Cordoba6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 32%
- vs Celta de Vigo II13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 52%
- at Sabadell20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.