Regular Season - 16 · 22 November 2026, 18:30 UTC

Arges Pitesti vs FCSB Liga I prediction

Mioveni

Our model says: Arges Pitesti 0–1 FCSB

The model makes it 33% Arges Pitesti, 32% draw, 35% FCSB — fair odds of 3.03, 3.13 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Arges Pitesti 1.03, FCSB 1.06.

Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

A tight game: Arges Pitesti and FCSB are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published 8 November 2026 · updated 11 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Arges Pitesti's rating is built from 55 Romanian Liga I matches and FCSB's from 56, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 760 matches.

Key facts

Arges Pitesti are 13th on 15 points from 15 games; FCSB are 8th on 21 points from 15 games — Liga I.
Arges Pitesti have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Dinamo Bucuresti.
FCSB have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Corvinul Hunedoara.
Last 6 meetings: FCSB 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended Arges Pitesti 0–5 FCSB.

More Romanian Liga I predictions

All Romanian Liga I predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Arges Pitesti vs FCSB

43%

Both teams to score

35%

Over 2.5 goals

65%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Arges Pitesti win Draw FCSB win

1–114%
0–013%
0–112%
1–012%
1–27%
2–17%
0–27%

Scores read Arges Pitesti first; the other scorelines share the remaining 28%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

FCSB at 35%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Arges Pitesti vs FCSB

Arges Pitesti

Liga I

W2-1Dinamo Bucuresti6 November 2026
L0-2away to Corvinul Hunedoara31 October 2026
L0-1Uta Arad24 October 2026
D2-2away to Universitatea Cluj19 October 2026
L0-1CFR 1907 Cluj12 October 2026

FCSB

Liga I

L0-1Corvinul Hunedoara7 November 2026
L0-1away to Universitatea Cluj2 November 2026
W4-1Rapid24 October 2026
W2-1away to FC Voluntari19 October 2026
W1-0Oțelul10 October 2026

What these results say

Arges Pitesti conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Arges Pitesti failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
FCSB conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga I table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
13	Arges Pitesti	15	4	3	8	10	17	-7	15
8	FCSB	15	6	3	6	20	21	-1	21

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Arges Pitesti

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 26% today

Win 17%

Draw 28%

Defeat 31%

FCSB

Chance to finish in the top six · 38% today

Win 47%

Draw 33%

Defeat 30%

From our Liga I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Arges Pitesti vs FCSB

2 September 2026Arges Pitesti 0–5 FCSBCupa României
17 July 2026FCSB 2–0 Arges PitestiLiga I
16 January 2026Arges Pitesti 1–0 FCSBLiga I
24 August 2025FCSB 0–2 Arges PitestiLiga I
26 February 2023Arges Pitesti 1–2 FCSBLiga I
2 October 2022FCSB 3–2 Arges PitestiLiga I

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Arges Pitesti FCSB

0.44 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.73

1.31 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.57

1.03 Model expected goals (this match) 1.06

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FCSB the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Arges Pitesti against 1.06 for FCSB. Arges Pitesti's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.57 for FCSB.

How the model reaches 35% for FCSB to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for FCSB to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Arges Pitesti's ratings add 2 points and FCSB's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 35%.

Two average sides, neutral ground35%
Home advantage29%−6
Both sides at this match's level28%−1
Arges Pitesti's ratings30%+2
FCSB's ratings35%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Arges PitestiModelFCSB

Over 1.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

62%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

30%

3 of 10 games

35%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

20%

2 of 10 games

16%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Both teams score

40%

4 of 10 games

43%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Arges PitestiFCSB

15Matches15

4W 3D 8LRecord6W 3D 6L

10 0.7 per gameGoals scored20 1.3 per game

17 1.1 per gameGoals conceded21 1.4 per game

3 of 15Clean sheets4 of 15

7 of 15Failed to score5 of 15

2 of 2Penalties scored2 of 3

39 2.6 per gameYellow cards32 2.1 per game

1Red cards1

4-2-3-1 3×Usual shape4-2-3-1 9×

Arges Pitesti at home · FCSB away

8Played7

3W 2D 3LRecord2W 1D 4L

6–6Goals for – against5–10

2 of 8Clean sheets2 of 7

League matches only, Liga I, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

Arges PitestiFCSB

Arges Pitesti are 13th after 15 Liga I matches (between 1st and 16th so far); FCSB are 8th after 15 (between 1st and 10th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Liga I matches this season: Arges Pitesti 15, FCSB 15.

Arges Pitesti scored 132132

FCSB conceded 235335

FCSB scored 341336

Arges Pitesti conceded 061305

FCSB score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Arges Pitesti have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Arges Pitesti

at Petrolul Ploiesti28 Nov · Liga Iwin 24%
at Csikszereda5 Dec · Liga Iwin 34%
vs Universitatea Craiova12 Dec · Liga Iwin 18%
at Farul Constanta19 Dec · Liga Iwin 24%
vs Oțelul16 Jan · Liga Iwin 40%

FCSB

vs Csikszereda28 Nov · Liga Iwin 61%
at Farul Constanta5 Dec · Liga Iwin 33%
vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe12 Dec · Liga Iwin 58%
at FC Botosani19 Dec · Liga Iwin 34%
vs CFR 1907 Cluj16 Jan · Liga Iwin 42%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.