Regular Season - 15 · 22 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Cordoba vs Oviedo Segunda División prediction

Cordoba

Our model says: Cordoba 2–1 Oviedo

The model makes it 41% Cordoba, 25% draw, 34% Oviedo — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Cordoba 1.77, Oviedo 1.56.

Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published 8 November 2026 · updated 12 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Cordoba's rating is built from 55 Segunda División matches and Oviedo's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,076 matches.

Key facts

Cordoba are 11th on 19 points from 13 games; Oviedo are 9th on 21 points from 13 games — Segunda División.
Cordoba are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to AD Ceuta FC.
Oviedo have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Cadiz.
Last 6 meetings: Oviedo 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 20 April 2025, ended Cordoba 0–0 Oviedo.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Cordoba vs Oviedo

66%

Both teams to score

65%

Over 2.5 goals

35%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Cordoba win Draw Oviedo win

1–110%
2–19%
1–28%
2–27%
1–06%
2–06%
3–15%

Scores read Cordoba first; the other scorelines share the remaining 50%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Cordoba at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Cordoba vs Oviedo

Cordoba

Segunda División

W3-0AD Ceuta FC7 November 2026
D2-2away to Celta de Vigo II31 October 2026
W2-0Eibar24 October 2026
W1-0away to Leganes16 October 2026
L1-2away to Eldense10 October 2026

Oviedo

Segunda División

W2-1away to Cadiz7 November 2026
L2-3Las Palmas2 November 2026
D2-2away to Almeria24 October 2026
W2-1away to AD Ceuta FC18 October 2026
W3-1Eibar12 October 2026

What these results say

Cordoba scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Oviedo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Oviedo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Every one of these 5 matches for Oviedo had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	22	22	0	19
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	19	16	+3	21

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Cordoba vs Oviedo

20 April 2025Cordoba 0–0 OviedoSegunda División
21 December 2024Oviedo 2–3 CordobaSegunda División
21 April 2019Oviedo 3–3 CordobaSegunda División
25 August 2018Cordoba 2–4 OviedoSegunda División
24 March 2018Cordoba 1–1 OviedoSegunda División
22 October 2017Oviedo 2–0 CordobaSegunda División

Leading scorers: Cordoba and Oviedo

Cordoba

GoalsAssists

Percan61
Eder García42

Oviedo

GoalsAssists

Carlos Domínguez50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Oviedo (9th, with Cordoba 11th), while our numbers lean to Cordoba. Cordoba rate 0.80 in attack and 1.62 in defence, Oviedo 0.80 and 1.43 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cordoba a 0.5% chance of the title and Oviedo 1.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Cordoba Oviedo

0.8 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.8

1.62 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.43

1.77 Model expected goals (this match) 1.56

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Cordoba the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Cordoba against 1.56 for Oviedo. Cordoba's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.43 for Oviedo.

Cordoba carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.56 for Oviedo. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 41% for Cordoba to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cordoba to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Cordoba's ratings take away 2 points and Oviedo's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 41%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage43%+7
Both sides at this match's level45%+2
Cordoba's ratings43%−2
Oviedo's ratings41%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

CordobaModelOviedo

Over 1.5 goals

90%

9 of 10 games

85%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

65%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

43%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Both teams score

60%

6 of 10 games

66%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

CordobaOviedo

13Matches13

6W 1D 6LRecord6W 3D 4L

22 1.7 per gameGoals scored19 1.5 per game

22 1.7 per gameGoals conceded16 1.2 per game

3 of 13Clean sheets5 of 13

1 of 13Failed to score3 of 13

1 of 1Penalties scored–

44 3.4 per gameYellow cards42 3.2 per game

2Red cards1

4-3-3 13×Usual shape4-2-3-1 7×

Cordoba at home · Oviedo away

6Played7

4W 0D 2LRecord4W 1D 2L

11–8Goals for – against12–11

2 of 6Clean sheets2 of 7

League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

CordobaOviedo

Cordoba are 11th after 13 Segunda División matches (between 8th and 19th so far); Oviedo are 9th after 13 (between 5th and 16th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Segunda División matches this season: Cordoba 13, Oviedo 13.

Cordoba scored 542423

Oviedo conceded 061225

Cordoba score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Oviedo have let in 0 there.

Oviedo scored 333234

Cordoba conceded 442356

Oviedo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Cordoba have let in 6 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Cordoba

at Cadiz29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 36%
vs Las Palmas6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
vs Castellón13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
at Real Sociedad II20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 32%

Oviedo

vs Celta de Vigo II29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 55%
at FC Andorra6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
vs Real Sociedad II13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 49%
at Tenerife20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.