Uta Arad
vs
Universitatea Craiova
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Uta Arad 0–1 Universitatea Craiova
The model makes it 20% Uta Arad, 28% draw, 52% Universitatea Craiova — fair odds of 5.00, 3.57 and 1.92.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Uta Arad 0.76, Universitatea Craiova 1.56.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Universitatea Craiova are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Uta Arad's rating is built from 54 Romanian Liga I matches and Universitatea Craiova's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 760 matches.
Key facts
- Uta Arad are 10th on 18 points from 15 games; Universitatea Craiova are top on 33 points from 15 games — Liga I.
- Uta Arad have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Petrolul Ploiesti.
- Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to CFR 1907 Cluj.
- Last 6 meetings: Universitatea Craiova 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended Universitatea Craiova 4–0 Uta Arad.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Uta Arad vs Universitatea Craiova
Has the model earned this number?
Universitatea Craiova at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Uta Arad vs Universitatea Craiova
Uta Arad
Liga I
- L0-1Petrolul Ploiesti6 November 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Bucuresti1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Arges Pitesti24 October 2026
- W1-0CFR 1907 Cluj18 October 2026
- L0-2away to FC Botosani10 October 2026
Universitatea Craiova
Liga I
- D0-0away to CFR 1907 Cluj8 November 2026
- W2-1FC Botosani1 November 2026
- W5-0away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe26 October 2026
- W2-0Farul Constanta18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Csikszereda11 October 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Uta Arad had two goals or fewer.
- Universitatea Craiova went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Uta Arad | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 18 |
| 1 | Universitatea Craiova | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 10 | +24 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Uta Arad
Chance to finish in the top six · 8% today
Universitatea Craiova
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 65% today
From our Liga I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Uta Arad vs Universitatea Craiova
- 18 July 2026Universitatea Craiova 4–0 Uta AradLiga I
- 9 November 2025Universitatea Craiova 1–2 Uta AradLiga I
- 12 July 2025Uta Arad 3–3 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 25 November 2024Uta Arad 1–2 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 20 July 2024Universitatea Craiova 4–2 Uta AradLiga I
- 20 December 2023Uta Arad 2–2 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
Leading scorers: Uta Arad and Universitatea Craiova
Uta Arad
GoalsAssists
- M. Coman50
Universitatea Craiova
GoalsAssists
- S. Elisor90
- A. Al Hamlawi70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Uta Arad a 0% chance of the title and Universitatea Craiova 65.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitatea Craiova the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Uta Arad against 1.56 for Universitatea Craiova. Uta Arad's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/0.89 for Universitatea Craiova.
How the model reaches 52% for Universitatea Craiova to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Universitatea Craiova to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Uta Arad's ratings add 11 points and Universitatea Craiova's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage29%−6
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Uta Arad's ratings39%+11
- Universitatea Craiova's ratings52%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Uta Arad at home · Universitatea Craiova away
League matches only, Liga I, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Uta AradUniversitatea Craiova
Uta Arad are 10th after 15 Liga I matches (between 6th and 16th so far); Universitatea Craiova are 1st after 15 (between 1st and 8th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Uta Arad 15, Universitatea Craiova 15.
Uta Arad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Universitatea Craiova have let in 5 there.
Universitatea Craiova score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Uta Arad have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Uta Arad
- at Oțelul28 Nov · Liga Iwin 30%
- vs FC Voluntari5 Dec · Liga Iwin 56%
- at Rapid12 Dec · Liga Iwin 19%
- vs Universitatea Cluj19 Dec · Liga Iwin 33%
- at Corvinul Hunedoara16 Jan · Liga Iwin 27%
Universitatea Craiova
- at Brighton26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 14%
- vs Dinamo Bucuresti28 Nov · Liga Iwin 52%
- at Petrolul Ploiesti5 Dec · Liga Iwin 51%
- at Arges Pitesti12 Dec · Liga Iwin 51%
- vs FC Copenhagen17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 46%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.