Regular Season - 15 · 22 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Burgos vs Albacete Segunda División prediction

Burgos

Our model says: Burgos 1–0 Albacete

The model makes it 53% Burgos, 27% draw, 20% Albacete — fair odds of 1.89, 3.70 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).

Expected goals: Burgos 1.63, Albacete 0.81.

Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to Burgos: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 8 November 2026 · updated 11 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Burgos's rating is built from 55 Segunda División matches and Albacete's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,076 matches.

Key facts

Burgos are 3rd on 24 points from 13 games; Albacete are 21st on 10 points from 13 games — Segunda División.
Burgos are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Celta de Vigo II.
Albacete are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Leganes.
Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended Albacete 2–3 Burgos.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Burgos vs Albacete

45%

Both teams to score

44%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Burgos win Draw Albacete win

1–014%
1–112%
2–012%
2–19%
0–09%
0–16%
3–06%

Scores read Burgos first; the other scorelines share the remaining 31%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Burgos at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Burgos vs Albacete

Burgos

Segunda División

W2-1Celta de Vigo II7 November 2026
D1-1Castellón1 November 2026
W3-2away to FC Andorra26 October 2026
W1-0Sabadell18 October 2026
L0-1Granada CF12 October 2026

Albacete

Segunda División

W3-1away to Leganes7 November 2026
W2-1Sabadell31 October 2026
W2-0Eldense25 October 2026
L1-2away to Sporting Gijon17 October 2026
L0-5away to Valladolid12 October 2026

What these results say

Burgos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Burgos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Albacete scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Albacete conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Albacete had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	19	14	+5	24
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	13	24	-11	10

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Burgos

Chance to finish in the top two · 11% today

Win 12%

Draw 8%

Defeat 7%

Albacete

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 45% today

Win 35%

Draw 45%

Defeat 48%

From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Burgos vs Albacete

4 April 2026Albacete 2–3 BurgosSegunda División
8 December 2025Burgos 0–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
10 March 2025Burgos 1–0 AlbaceteSegunda División
21 October 2024Albacete 2–0 BurgosSegunda División
28 January 2024Burgos 2–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
16 September 2023Albacete 2–1 BurgosSegunda División

Leading scorers: Burgos and Albacete

Burgos

GoalsAssists

Álex Forés41

Albacete

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Burgos a 3% chance of the title and Albacete 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Burgos Albacete

0.67 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.66

1.02 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.57

1.63 Model expected goals (this match) 0.81

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Burgos the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Burgos against 0.81 for Albacete. Burgos's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.57 for Albacete.

Burgos carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.42 for Albacete.

How the model reaches 53% for Burgos to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Burgos to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Burgos's ratings add 4 points and Albacete's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 53%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage43%+7
Both sides at this match's level41%−2
Burgos's ratings45%+4
Albacete's ratings53%+8

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

BurgosModelAlbacete

Over 1.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

71%

model, this match

100%

10 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

44%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

20%

2 of 10 games

23%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Both teams score

60%

6 of 10 games

45%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

BurgosAlbacete

13Matches13

7W 3D 3LRecord3W 1D 9L

19 1.5 per gameGoals scored13 1.0 per game

14 1.1 per gameGoals conceded24 1.8 per game

3 of 13Clean sheets1 of 13

3 of 13Failed to score4 of 13

3 of 3Penalties scored2 of 2

31 2.4 per gameYellow cards34 2.6 per game

0Red cards2

4-4-2 7×Usual shape4-4-2 5×

Burgos at home · Albacete away

8Played7

5W 2D 1LRecord1W 1D 5L

13–8Goals for – against6–15

2 of 8Clean sheets0 of 7

League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

BurgosAlbacete

Burgos are 3rd after 13 Segunda División matches (between 3rd and 12th so far); Albacete are 21st after 13 (between 18th and 22nd). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Segunda División matches this season: Burgos 13, Albacete 13.

Burgos scored 243423

Albacete conceded 436534

Albacete scored 221214

Burgos conceded 614013

Albacete score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Burgos have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Burgos

at Eibar29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
vs Cadiz6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 54%
at Mallorca13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 25%
vs Girona20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 37%

Albacete

vs Tenerife29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 40%
at AD Ceuta FC6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 39%
at Almeria13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 17%
vs Mallorca20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.