Girona
vs
Eibar
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Girona 1–0 Eibar
The model makes it 43% Girona, 29% draw, 28% Eibar — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Girona 1.39, Eibar 1.01.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Girona's rating is built from 13 Segunda División matches and Eibar's from 54, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,076 matches.
Key facts
- Girona are 8th on 21 points from 13 games; Eibar are 4th on 23 points from 12 games — Segunda División.
- Girona have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Almeria.
- Eibar are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Almeria.
- Last 6 meetings: Eibar 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 5 June 2022, ended Eibar 0–2 Girona.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Girona vs Eibar
Has the model earned this number?
Girona at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Girona vs Eibar
Girona
Segunda División
- L0-1Almeria8 November 2026
- L0-1away to Real Sociedad II31 October 2026
- W5-1Celta de Vigo II24 October 2026
- W2-0FC Andorra18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Tenerife12 October 2026
Eibar
Segunda División
- D1-1Almeria31 October 2026
- L0-2away to Cordoba24 October 2026
- D1-1Mallorca17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Oviedo12 October 2026
- W3-1away to Albacete3 October 2026
What these results say
- Girona conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Girona had two goals or fewer.
- Eibar conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Eibar failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Eibar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Girona | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 12 | +10 | 21 |
| 4 | Eibar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Girona
Chance to finish in the top two · 10% today
Eibar
Chance to finish in the top two · 17% today
From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Girona vs Eibar
- 5 June 2022Eibar 0–2 GironaSegunda División
- 2 June 2022Girona 0–1 EibarSegunda División
- 19 February 2022Girona 0–1 EibarSegunda División
- 29 November 2021Eibar 4–2 GironaSegunda División
- 3 February 2019Eibar 3–0 GironaLa Liga
- 6 October 2018Girona 2–3 EibarLa Liga
Leading scorers: Girona and Eibar
Girona
GoalsAssists
- V. Vanat52
- Y. Asprilla51
Eibar
GoalsAssists
- Iván Gil41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Eibar (fourth, with Girona eighth), while our numbers lean to Girona. Girona rate 0.79 in attack and 1.08 in defence, Eibar 0.78 and 1.14 (lower is better in defence), so Girona have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Girona a 3.1% chance of the title and Eibar 6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Girona v Eibar has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 45% / 28% / 27% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is Girona's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Girona win43%▼ −2
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Eibar win28%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Girona the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Girona against 1.01 for Eibar. Girona's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.14 for Eibar.
How the model reaches 43% for Girona to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Girona to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Girona's ratings add 1 point and Eibar's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Both sides at this match's level41%−2
- Girona's ratings42%+1
- Eibar's ratings43%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Girona at home · Eibar away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
GironaEibar
Girona are 8th after 13 Segunda División matches (between 2nd and 16th so far); Eibar are 4th after 12 (between 1st and 20th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Girona 13, Eibar 12.
Eibar score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Girona have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Girona
- at Eldense29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 44%
- vs Valladolid6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 55%
- at Granada CF13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 36%
- at Burgos20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 31%
Eibar
- vs Burgos29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 41%
- at Sabadell6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 34%
- vs Sporting Gijon13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 49%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.