Atletico Paranaense
vs
Remo
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Remo
The model makes it 57% Atletico Paranaense, 24% draw, 19% Remo — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Atletico Paranaense 2.11, Remo 1.02.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Atletico Paranaense: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Atletico Paranaense's rating is built from 34 Brazilian Serie A matches and Remo's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,099 matches.
Key facts
- Atletico Paranaense are 5th on 54 points from 34 games; Remo are 19th on 29 points from 34 games — Serie A.
- Atletico Paranaense are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Vasco da Gama.
- Remo have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-6 defeat away to Palmeiras.
- Last 3 meetings: Atletico Paranaense 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Remo 1–2 Atletico Paranaense.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atletico Paranaense vs Remo
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Paranaense at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Atletico Paranaense vs Remo
Atletico Paranaense
Serie A
- L1-3Vasco da Gama4 November 2026
- L0-2away to Gremio30 October 2026
- D1-1away to Vitoria24 October 2026
- L0-2Palmeiras17 October 2026
- W4-1away to Chapecoense12 October 2026
Remo
Serie A
- L1-6away to Palmeiras5 November 2026
- W2-1Botafogo29 October 2026
- L0-1away to Cruzeiro23 October 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Vasco da Gama10 October 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Paranaense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Paranaense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Remo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Remo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51 | 43 | +8 | 54 |
| 19 | Remo | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 37 | 57 | -20 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Atletico Paranaense
Chance to finish in the top four · 14% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense vs Remo
- 24 May 2026Remo 1–2 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 10 October 2025Remo 2–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie B
- 14 June 2025Atletico Paranaense 2–1 RemoSerie B
Leading scorers: Atletico Paranaense and Remo
Atletico Paranaense
GoalsAssists
- K. Viveros213
Remo
GoalsAssists
- Jája Silva91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Paranaense the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense against 1.02 for Remo. Atletico Paranaense's attack/defence rating is 0.98/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.36 for Remo.
How the model reaches 57% for Atletico Paranaense to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Atletico Paranaense to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Atletico Paranaense's ratings add 7 points and Remo's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Both sides at this match's level46%+1
- Atletico Paranaense's ratings53%+7
- Remo's ratings57%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Atletico Paranaense at home · Remo away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Atletico Paranaense 34, Remo 34.
Atletico Paranaense score most often in the 0–15 minute window (13 goals); Remo have let in 6 there.
Remo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Atletico Paranaense have let in 11 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Atletico Paranaense
- at Mirassol29 Nov · Serie Awin 30%
- vs Sao Paulo3 Dec · Serie Awin 48%
Remo
- at Sao Paulo26 Nov · Serie Awin 22%
- vs Corinthians3 Dec · Serie Awin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.