Mirassol
vs
Atletico Mineiro
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Mirassol 1–0 Atletico Mineiro
The model makes it 39% Mirassol, 30% draw, 31% Atletico Mineiro — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Mirassol 1.29, Atletico Mineiro 1.09.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Mirassol are 16th on 37 points from 33 games; Atletico Mineiro are 7th on 50 points from 33 games — Serie A.
- Mirassol have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Corinthians.
- Atletico Mineiro have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Cruzeiro.
- Last 3 meetings: Atletico Mineiro 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Atletico Mineiro 3–1 Mirassol.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mirassol vs Atletico Mineiro
Has the model earned this number?
Mirassol at 39%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Mirassol vs Atletico Mineiro
Mirassol
Serie A
- L0-2away to Corinthians30 October 2026
- D1-1Sao Paulo24 October 2026
- W2-0Internacional16 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bahia11 October 2026
- D1-1away to RB Bragantino7 October 2026
Atletico Mineiro
Serie A
- L0-1Cruzeiro29 October 2026
- L2-3away to Flamengo26 October 2026
- W1-0Coritiba17 October 2026
- W2-1Santos11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Atletico Paranaense8 October 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Mirassol had two goals or fewer.
- Mirassol failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mirassol conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Mineiro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Mineiro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Mirassol | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 37 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Mirassol vs Atletico Mineiro
- 16 May 2026Atletico Mineiro 3–1 MirassolSerie A
- 28 September 2025Atletico Mineiro 1–0 MirassolSerie A
- 26 April 2025Mirassol 2–2 Atletico MineiroSerie A
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mirassol carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.77 for Atletico Mineiro.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Mirassol and 1.09 for Atletico Mineiro.
Mirassol rate 0.81 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Mineiro rate 0.86 and 1.01.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Atletico Mineiro, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mirassol the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Mirassol against 1.09 for Atletico Mineiro. Mirassol's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.01 for Atletico Mineiro.
How the model reaches 39% for Mirassol to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Mirassol to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Mirassol's ratings take away 2 points and Atletico Mineiro's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Both sides at this match's level44%−1
- Mirassol's ratings42%−2
- Atletico Mineiro's ratings39%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Mirassol at home · Atletico Mineiro away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Mirassol 33, Atletico Mineiro 33.
Mirassol score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Atletico Mineiro have let in 13 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Mirassol
- at Fluminense22 Nov · Serie Awin 22%
- vs Atletico Paranaense29 Nov · Serie Awin 40%
- at Gremio2 Dec · Serie Awin 29%
Atletico Mineiro
- vs Boca Juniors21 Nov · CONMEBOL Sudamericanawin 39%
- vs Corinthians25 Nov · Serie Awin 51%
- vs Vasco da Gama29 Nov · Serie Awin 51%
- at Bahia2 Dec · Serie Awin 28%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.