Regular Season - 13 · 21 November 2026, 12:45 UTC

Nassaji Mazandaran vs Aluminium Arak Persian Gulf Pro League prediction

Vatani Stadium

Our model says: Nassaji Mazandaran 1–0 Aluminium Arak

The model makes it 38% Nassaji Mazandaran, 30% draw, 32% Aluminium Arak — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Nassaji Mazandaran 1.23, Aluminium Arak 1.06.

Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Nassaji Mazandaran's rating is built from 12 Persian Gulf Pro League matches and Aluminium Arak's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Nassaji Mazandaran are 12th on 12 points from 12 games; Aluminium Arak are 6th on 17 points from 12 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
  • Nassaji Mazandaran have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Paykan.
  • Aluminium Arak have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Mes Shahr-e Babak.
  • Last 6 meetings: Aluminium Arak 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 January 2025, ended Nassaji Mazandaran 1–2 Aluminium Arak.

More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Nassaji Mazandaran vs Aluminium Arak

47%
Both teams to score
40%
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Nassaji Mazandaran win Draw Aluminium Arak win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–012%
  3. 0–011%
  4. 0–110%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 2–08%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Nassaji Mazandaran first; the other scorelines share the remaining 30%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Nassaji Mazandaran at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Nassaji Mazandaran vs Aluminium Arak

Nassaji Mazandaran

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • D1-1away to Paykan7 November 2026
  • L0-1Persepolis FC31 October 2026
  • D2-2Fajr Sepasi25 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Foolad FC18 October 2026
  • D1-1ZOB Ahan8 October 2026

Aluminium Arak

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • W1-0Mes Shahr-e Babak6 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Foolad FC30 October 2026
  • D0-0ZOB Ahan23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Sanat Naft17 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Fajr Sepasi13 October 2026

What these results say

  • Nassaji Mazandaran did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Nassaji Mazandaran conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Nassaji Mazandaran had two goals or fewer.
  • Aluminium Arak failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Nassaji Mazandaran12264811-312
6Aluminium Arak12453129+317

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Nassaji Mazandaran

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 25% today

Win 10%
Draw 27%
Defeat 40%

From our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Nassaji Mazandaran vs Aluminium Arak

  • 27 January 2025Nassaji Mazandaran 1–2 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 22 August 2024Aluminium Arak 1–1 Nassaji MazandaranPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 17 March 2024Aluminium Arak 1–0 Nassaji MazandaranPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 9 February 2024Nassaji Mazandaran 0–1 Aluminium ArakHazfi Cup
  • 17 October 2023Nassaji Mazandaran 0–1 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 14 April 2023Nassaji Mazandaran 0–0 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Aluminium Arak (6th, with Nassaji Mazandaran 12th), while our numbers lean to Nassaji Mazandaran. Nassaji Mazandaran rate 0.51 in attack and 1.60 in defence, Aluminium Arak 0.55 and 1.48 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Nassaji Mazandaran Aluminium Arak
0.51 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.55
1.6 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.48
1.23 Model expected goals (this match) 1.06

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Nassaji Mazandaran the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Nassaji Mazandaran against 1.06 for Aluminium Arak. Nassaji Mazandaran's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.48 for Aluminium Arak.

Nassaji Mazandaran carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.36 for Aluminium Arak. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 38% for Nassaji Mazandaran to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Nassaji Mazandaran to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Nassaji Mazandaran's ratings take away 2 points and Aluminium Arak's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 38%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−2
  4. Nassaji Mazandaran's ratings40%−2
  5. Aluminium Arak's ratings38%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Nassaji MazandaranAluminium Arak
12Matches12
2W 6D 4LRecord4W 5D 3L
8 0.7 per gameGoals scored12 1.0 per game
11 0.9 per gameGoals conceded9 0.8 per game
3 of 12Clean sheets6 of 12
5 of 12Failed to score4 of 12
1 of 1Penalties scored3 of 3
16 1.3 per gameYellow cards18 1.5 per game
1Red cards1

Nassaji Mazandaran at home · Aluminium Arak away

6Played6
1W 2D 3LRecord3W 0D 3L
4–7Goals for – against8–6
1 of 6Clean sheets2 of 6

League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Nassaji Mazandaran 12, Aluminium Arak 12.

Nassaji Mazandaran scored 022112
Aluminium Arak conceded 220202
Aluminium Arak scored 114214
Nassaji Mazandaran conceded 120224

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Nassaji Mazandaran

  • at Sepahan FC28 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 11%
  • vs Chadormalu SC4 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 38%
  • at Tractor Sazi17 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 11%
  • vs Sanat Naft25 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 49%

Aluminium Arak

  • vs Persepolis FC27 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 32%
  • vs Paykan4 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 46%
  • at Sepahan FC17 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 14%
  • vs Tractor Sazi23 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 23%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.