Cruzeiro
vs
Palmeiras
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Cruzeiro 0–1 Palmeiras
The model makes it 32% Cruzeiro, 30% draw, 38% Palmeiras — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Cruzeiro 1.10, Palmeiras 1.27.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,192 settled matches.
Edge to Palmeiras: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 4 November 2026. Cruzeiro's rating is built from 71 Brazilian Serie A matches and Palmeiras's from 71, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,092 matches.
Key facts
- Cruzeiro are 3rd on 57 points from 33 games; Palmeiras are 2nd on 70 points from 33 games — Serie A.
- Cruzeiro are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Atletico Mineiro.
- Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Santos.
- Last 6 meetings: Palmeiras 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Palmeiras 1–1 Cruzeiro.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras
Has the model earned this number?
Palmeiras at 38%: of 4,341 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.6% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras
Cruzeiro
Serie A
- W1-0away to Atletico Mineiro29 October 2026
- W1-0Remo23 October 2026
- W4-2away to Gremio18 October 2026
- L2-4away to RB Bragantino13 October 2026
- W2-0Sao Paulo8 October 2026
Palmeiras
Serie A
- D0-0away to Santos28 October 2026
- W2-0RB Bragantino24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Atletico Paranaense17 October 2026
- W4-1Corinthians11 October 2026
- W1-0Bahia9 October 2026
What these results say
- Cruzeiro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Palmeiras went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Palmeiras won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Palmeiras scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 52 | 46 | +6 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 33 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 56 | 22 | +34 | 70 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras
- 17 May 2026Palmeiras 1–1 CruzeiroSerie A
- 26 October 2025Palmeiras 0–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 1 June 2025Cruzeiro 2–1 PalmeirasSerie A
- 5 December 2024Cruzeiro 1–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 21 July 2024Palmeiras 2–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 7 December 2023Cruzeiro 1–1 PalmeirasSerie A
Leading scorers: Cruzeiro and Palmeiras
Cruzeiro
GoalsAssists
- Kaio Jorge122
- Matheus Pereira97
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López96
- Maurício91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cruzeiro a 0% chance of the title and Palmeiras 19.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Palmeiras the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Cruzeiro against 1.27 for Palmeiras. Cruzeiro's attack/defence rating is 1.07/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/0.65 for Palmeiras.
How the model reaches 38% for Palmeiras to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Palmeiras to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Cruzeiro's ratings add 6 points and Palmeiras's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage28%−8
- Both sides at this match's level27%−1
- Cruzeiro's ratings33%+6
- Palmeiras's ratings38%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Cruzeiro at home · Palmeiras away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Cruzeiro 33, Palmeiras 33.
Cruzeiro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Palmeiras have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Cruzeiro
- at Chapecoense22 Nov · Serie Awin 52%
- at Fluminense29 Nov · Serie Awin 30%
- vs Internacional2 Dec · Serie Awin 55%
Palmeiras
- vs Flamengo21 Nov · Serie Awin 43%
- at Estudiantes La Plata28 Nov · CONMEBOL Libertadoreswin 44%
- at Chapecoense29 Nov · Serie Awin 61%
- vs Coritiba2 Dec · Serie Awin 70%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.