Regular Season - 36 · 22 November 2026, 22:30 UTC

RB Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama Serie A prediction

Estadio Cicero de Souza Marques, Braganza

Our model says: RB Bragantino 1–0 Vasco da Gama

The model makes it 48% RB Bragantino, 26% draw, 26% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: RB Bragantino 1.70, Vasco da Gama 1.10.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • RB Bragantino are 8th on 47 points from 34 games; Vasco da Gama are 13th on 41 points from 33 games — Serie A.
  • RB Bragantino have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Santos.
  • Vasco da Gama have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Atletico Paranaense.
  • Last 6 meetings: RB Bragantino 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Vasco da Gama 0–3 RB Bragantino.

More Brazilian Serie A predictions

All Brazilian Serie A predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: RB Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama

55%
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

RB Bragantino win Draw Vasco da Gama win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–110%
  4. 2–09%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 1–26%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read RB Bragantino first; the other scorelines share the remaining 40%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

RB Bragantino at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into RB Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama

RB Bragantino

Serie A

  • W2-1Santos2 November 2026
  • W3-0Chapecoense28 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Palmeiras24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Remo18 October 2026
  • W4-2Cruzeiro13 October 2026

Vasco da Gama

Serie A

  • W3-1away to Atletico Paranaense4 November 2026
  • L1-4Flamengo29 October 2026
  • W3-2Corinthians24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Sao Paulo18 October 2026
  • D0-0Remo10 October 2026

What these results say

  • RB Bragantino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • RB Bragantino conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Vasco da Gama conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8RB Bragantino34138134439+547
13Vasco da Gama33118144350-741

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: RB Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama

  • 24 May 2026Vasco da Gama 0–3 RB BragantinoSerie A
  • 26 October 2025RB Bragantino 0–3 Vasco da GamaSerie A
  • 1 June 2025Vasco da Gama 0–2 RB BragantinoSerie A
  • 3 August 2024Vasco da Gama 2–2 RB BragantinoSerie A
  • 17 April 2024RB Bragantino 2–1 Vasco da GamaSerie A
  • 7 December 2023Vasco da Gama 2–1 RB BragantinoSerie A

The full RB Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama record →

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

RB Bragantino Vasco da Gama
0.86 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.92
1.07 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.25
1.70 Model expected goals (this match) 1.10

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives RB Bragantino the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for RB Bragantino against 1.10 for Vasco da Gama. RB Bragantino's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.25 for Vasco da Gama.

How the model reaches 48% for RB Bragantino to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for RB Bragantino to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, RB Bragantino's ratings add 1 point and Vasco da Gama's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 48%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage45%+9
  3. RB Bragantino's ratings46%+1
  4. Vasco da Gama's ratings48%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

RB BragantinoVasco da Gama
34Matches33
13W 8D 13LRecord11W 8D 14L
44 1.3 per gameGoals scored43 1.3 per game
39 1.1 per gameGoals conceded50 1.5 per game
9 of 34Clean sheets4 of 33
8 of 34Failed to score10 of 33
2 of 5Penalties scored2 of 2
87 2.6 per gameYellow cards61 1.8 per game
5Red cards2
4-2-3-1 26×Usual shape4-2-3-1 18×

RB Bragantino at home · Vasco da Gama away

17Played16
9W 3D 5LRecord3W 5D 8L
29–18Goals for – against18–26
6 of 17Clean sheets1 of 16

League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie A matches this season: RB Bragantino 34, Vasco da Gama 33.

RB Bragantino scored 5511637
Vasco da Gama conceded 567111010

RB Bragantino score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Vasco da Gama have let in 7 there.

Vasco da Gama scored 2478815
RB Bragantino conceded 5810968

Vasco da Gama score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); RB Bragantino have let in 8 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

RB Bragantino

  • at Internacional29 Nov · Serie Awin 30%
  • vs Fluminense3 Dec · Serie Awin 40%

Vasco da Gama

  • at Atletico Mineiro29 Nov · Serie Awin 25%
  • vs Vitoria3 Dec · Serie Awin 54%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.