Coritiba
vs
Santos
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Coritiba 1–2 Santos
The model makes it 33% Coritiba, 28% draw, 39% Santos — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Coritiba 1.31, Santos 1.46.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,192 settled matches.
Edge to Santos: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 4 November 2026. Coritiba's rating is built from 34 Brazilian Serie A matches and Santos's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,092 matches.
Key facts
- Coritiba are 11th on 42 points from 34 games; Santos are 9th on 47 points from 34 games — Serie A.
- Coritiba have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Internacional.
- Santos are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to RB Bragantino.
- Last 6 meetings: Santos 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Santos 0–3 Coritiba.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Coritiba vs Santos
Has the model earned this number?
Santos at 39%: of 4,341 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.6% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Coritiba vs Santos
Coritiba
Serie A
- L0-1away to Internacional4 November 2026
- W2-0Vitoria31 October 2026
- L0-1Gremio26 October 2026
- L0-1away to Atletico Mineiro17 October 2026
- D1-1Botafogo12 October 2026
Santos
Serie A
- L1-2away to RB Bragantino2 November 2026
- D0-0Palmeiras28 October 2026
- D1-1Bahia25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Fluminense18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico Mineiro11 October 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Coritiba had two goals or fewer.
- Coritiba failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Coritiba conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santos failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50 | 49 | +1 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Santos
- 17 May 2026Santos 0–3 CoritibaSerie A
- 13 May 2026Coritiba 0–2 SantosCopa Do Brasil
- 22 April 2026Santos 0–0 CoritibaCopa Do Brasil
- 12 November 2024Coritiba 0–2 SantosSerie B
- 22 July 2024Santos 4–0 CoritibaSerie B
- 27 October 2023Santos 2–1 CoritibaSerie A
Leading scorers: Coritiba and Santos
Coritiba
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Rocha91
- Breno Lopes81
Santos
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Barbosa154
- Neymar83
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santos the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Coritiba against 1.46 for Santos. Coritiba's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/1.12 for Santos.
How the model reaches 39% for Santos to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Santos to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, Coritiba's ratings add 5 points and Santos's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage28%−8
- Coritiba's ratings33%+5
- Santos's ratings39%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Coritiba at home · Santos away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Coritiba 34, Santos 34.
Coritiba score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Santos have let in 10 there.
Santos score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Coritiba have let in 13 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Coritiba
- at Bahia21 Nov · Serie Awin 19%
- vs Flamengo29 Nov · Serie Awin 19%
- at Palmeiras2 Dec · Serie Awin 10%
Santos
- vs Gremio24 Nov · Serie Awin 52%
- at Vitoria29 Nov · Serie Awin 37%
- vs Botafogo2 Dec · Serie Awin 54%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.