Foolad FC
vs
Sepahan FC
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Foolad FC 0–1 Sepahan FC
The model makes it 33% Foolad FC, 29% draw, 38% Sepahan FC — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Foolad FC 1.21, Sepahan FC 1.34.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Edge to Sepahan FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Foolad FC's rating is built from 34 Persian Gulf Pro League matches and Sepahan FC's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Foolad FC are 4th on 23 points from 12 games; Sepahan FC are top on 26 points from 12 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Foolad FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Chadormalu SC.
- Sepahan FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 4-0 win at home to Malavan.
- Last 6 meetings: Sepahan FC 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 December 2025, ended Foolad FC 0–1 Sepahan FC.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Foolad FC vs Sepahan FC
Has the model earned this number?
Sepahan FC at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Foolad FC vs Sepahan FC
Foolad FC
Persian Gulf Pro League
- D1-1away to Chadormalu SC6 November 2026
- W1-0Aluminium Arak30 October 2026
- W1-0away to Persepolis FC25 October 2026
- D0-0Nassaji Mazandaran18 October 2026
- W2-1away to Malavan13 October 2026
Sepahan FC
Persian Gulf Pro League
- W4-0Malavan6 November 2026
- W2-1away to Kheybar Khorramabad30 October 2026
- W4-0Mes Shahr-e Babak25 October 2026
- D0-0away to Shams Azar Qazvin18 October 2026
- W2-1away to ZOB Ahan13 October 2026
What these results say
- Foolad FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Foolad FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Foolad FC had two goals or fewer.
- Sepahan FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sepahan FC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sepahan FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Foolad FC | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 23 |
| 1 | Sepahan FC | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Foolad FC
Chance to finish in the top two · 10% today
Sepahan FC
Chance to finish in the top two · 65% today
From our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Foolad FC vs Sepahan FC
- 15 December 2025Foolad FC 0–1 Sepahan FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 30 March 2025Sepahan FC 2–0 Foolad FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 27 October 2024Foolad FC 2–2 Sepahan FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 13 March 2024Foolad FC 1–3 Sepahan FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 14 December 2023Sepahan FC 3–1 Foolad FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 7 February 2023Foolad FC 0–1 Sepahan FCPersian Gulf Pro League
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Foolad FC a 3.2% chance of the title and Sepahan FC 39.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sepahan FC the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Foolad FC against 1.34 for Sepahan FC. Foolad FC's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.18 for Sepahan FC.
How the model reaches 38% for Sepahan FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sepahan FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Foolad FC's ratings add 4 points and Sepahan FC's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Foolad FC's ratings33%+4
- Sepahan FC's ratings38%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Foolad FC at home · Sepahan FC away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Foolad FC 12, Sepahan FC 12.
Foolad FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Sepahan FC have let in 5 there.
Sepahan FC score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Foolad FC have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Foolad FC
- at Paykan27 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 39%
- vs Tractor Sazi2 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 30%
- at Esteghlal Khuzestan18 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 41%
- vs Gol Gohar25 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 49%
Sepahan FC
- vs Nassaji Mazandaran28 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 69%
- at Persepolis FC4 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 37%
- vs Aluminium Arak17 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 65%
- at Paykan24 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 52%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.