Regular Season - 21 · 14 November 2026, 23:30 UTC

Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama Serie A prediction

Arena Condá, Chapeco

Our model says: Chapecoense 1–2 Vasco da Gama

The model makes it 31% Chapecoense, 26% draw, 43% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Chapecoense 1.37, Vasco da Gama 1.72.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.

Edge to Vasco da Gama: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Key facts

  • Chapecoense are bottom on 21 points from 33 games; Vasco da Gama are 13th on 41 points from 33 games — Serie A.
  • Chapecoense have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Mirassol.
  • Vasco da Gama have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Atletico Paranaense.
  • Last 6 meetings: Vasco da Gama 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 5 February 2026, ended Vasco da Gama 1–1 Chapecoense.

More Brazilian Serie A predictions

All Brazilian Serie A predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama

62%
Both teams to score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Chapecoense win Draw Vasco da Gama win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 2–17%
  4. 0–17%
  5. 0–27%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 1–06%

Scores read Chapecoense first; the other scorelines share the remaining 47%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Vasco da Gama at 43%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama

Chapecoense

Serie A

  • L1-2Mirassol3 November 2026
  • L0-3away to RB Bragantino28 October 2026
  • W2-1Fluminense24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Botafogo17 October 2026
  • L1-4Atletico Paranaense12 October 2026

Vasco da Gama

Serie A

  • W3-1away to Atletico Paranaense4 November 2026
  • L1-4Flamengo29 October 2026
  • W3-2Corinthians24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Sao Paulo18 October 2026
  • D0-0Remo10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Chapecoense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Chapecoense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Chapecoense had three goals or more.
  • Vasco da Gama conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Chapecoense3349203368-3521
13Vasco da Gama33118144350-741

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Vasco da Gama

Chance to finish in the bottom four

Win 0%
Draw 2%
Defeat 4%

From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama

Chapecoense and Vasco da Gama have met 6 times in the records we hold, Vasco da Gama has won 2 of them to Chapecoense's 0, with 4 drawn.

The record

They drew 1–1 at Vasco da Gama on 5 Feb 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Chapecoense04247
Vasco da Gama24074

Between them these 6 meetings produced 11 goals, an average of 1.83 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 5 Feb 2026
    Serie A    Vasco da Gama 1–1 Chapecoense
  • 31 Jul 2022
    Serie B    Vasco da Gama 0–0 Chapecoense
  • 23 Apr 2022
    Serie B    Chapecoense 0–0 Vasco da Gama
  • 8 Dec 2019
    Serie A    Vasco da Gama 1–1 Chapecoense
  • 14 Sep 2019
    Serie A    Chapecoense 1–2 Vasco da Gama
  • 26 Aug 2018
    Serie A    Vasco da Gama 3–1 Chapecoense

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Vasco da Gama's attack rates 33% above Chapecoense's, and Vasco da Gama concede 25% fewer than Chapecoense. That gives Vasco da Gama the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Chapecoense0.691.67
Vasco da Gama0.921.25

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

How the call on Chapecoense v Vasco da Gama has moved

First published on 4 Nov at 33% / 26% / 41% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 31% / 26% / 43%: the biggest move is Chapecoense's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Chapecoense win31%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%=
  3. Vasco da Gama win43%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Chapecoense Vasco da Gama
0.69 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.92
1.67 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.25
1.37 Model expected goals (this match) 1.72

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Vasco da Gama the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Chapecoense against 1.72 for Vasco da Gama. Chapecoense's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.25 for Vasco da Gama.

How the model reaches 43% for Vasco da Gama to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Vasco da Gama to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, Chapecoense's ratings add 7 points and Vasco da Gama's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 43%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage28%−8
  3. Chapecoense's ratings35%+7
  4. Vasco da Gama's ratings43%+8

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

ChapecoenseVasco da Gama
33Matches33
4W 9D 20LRecord11W 8D 14L
33 1.0 per gameGoals scored43 1.3 per game
68 2.1 per gameGoals conceded50 1.5 per game
2 of 33Clean sheets4 of 33
11 of 33Failed to score10 of 33
2 of 3Penalties scored2 of 2
71 2.2 per gameYellow cards61 1.8 per game
2Red cards2
4-2-3-1 15×Usual shape4-2-3-1 18×

Chapecoense at home · Vasco da Gama away

16Played16
3W 5D 8LRecord3W 5D 8L
22–36Goals for – against18–26
2 of 16Clean sheets1 of 16

League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie A matches this season: Chapecoense 33, Vasco da Gama 33.

Chapecoense scored 3675410
Vasco da Gama conceded 567111010

Chapecoense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Vasco da Gama have let in 10 there.

Vasco da Gama scored 2478815
Chapecoense conceded 71311131111

Vasco da Gama score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Chapecoense have let in 11 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Chapecoense

Vasco da Gama

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.