Chapecoense
vs
Cruzeiro
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Chapecoense 1–2 Cruzeiro
The model makes it 24% Chapecoense, 24% draw, 52% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 4.17, 4.17 and 1.92.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Chapecoense 1.21, Cruzeiro 2.04.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Cruzeiro are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Chapecoense are bottom on 21 points from 33 games; Cruzeiro are 3rd on 60 points from 34 games — Serie A.
- Chapecoense have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Mirassol.
- Cruzeiro are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Bahia.
- Last 6 meetings: Cruzeiro 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 August 2026, ended Cruzeiro 2–0 Chapecoense.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro
Has the model earned this number?
Cruzeiro at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro
Chapecoense
Serie A
- L1-2Mirassol3 November 2026
- L0-3away to RB Bragantino28 October 2026
- W2-1Fluminense24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Botafogo17 October 2026
- L1-4Atletico Paranaense12 October 2026
Cruzeiro
Serie A
- W3-2Bahia6 November 2026
- W1-0away to Atletico Mineiro29 October 2026
- W1-0Remo23 October 2026
- W4-2away to Gremio18 October 2026
- L2-4away to RB Bragantino13 October 2026
What these results say
- Chapecoense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chapecoense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chapecoense had three goals or more.
- Cruzeiro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Chapecoense | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 33 | 68 | -35 | 21 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 48 | +7 | 60 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cruzeiro
Chance to finish in the top four · 93% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro
- 5 August 2026Cruzeiro 2–0 ChapecoenseCopa Do Brasil
- 2 August 2026Chapecoense 0–0 CruzeiroCopa Do Brasil
- 24 May 2026Cruzeiro 2–1 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 13 August 2022Cruzeiro 1–1 ChapecoenseSerie B
- 30 April 2022Chapecoense 0–2 CruzeiroSerie B
- 25 November 2020Chapecoense 0–1 CruzeiroSerie B
Leading scorers: Chapecoense and Cruzeiro
Chapecoense
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.
Cruzeiro
GoalsAssists
- Kaio Jorge142
- Matheus Pereira97
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cruzeiro the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Chapecoense against 2.04 for Cruzeiro. Chapecoense's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/1.11 for Cruzeiro.
How the model reaches 52% for Cruzeiro to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cruzeiro to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, Chapecoense's ratings add 11 points and Cruzeiro's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage28%−8
- Chapecoense's ratings39%+11
- Cruzeiro's ratings52%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Chapecoense at home · Cruzeiro away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Chapecoense 33, Cruzeiro 34.
Chapecoense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Cruzeiro have let in 11 there.
Cruzeiro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Chapecoense have let in 11 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Chapecoense
- vs Palmeiras24 Nov · Serie Awin 14%
- at Flamengo3 Dec · Serie Awin 5%
Cruzeiro
- at Fluminense27 Nov · Serie Awin 27%
- vs Internacional3 Dec · Serie Awin 55%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.