Fluminense
vs
Mirassol
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Fluminense 1–0 Mirassol
The model makes it 53% Fluminense, 26% draw, 21% Mirassol — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fluminense 1.81, Mirassol 0.95.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Fluminense: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Fluminense's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie A matches and Mirassol's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,099 matches.
Key facts
- Fluminense are 4th on 57 points from 34 games; Mirassol are 14th on 40 points from 34 games — Serie A.
- Fluminense have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Vitoria.
- Mirassol have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Chapecoense.
- Last 3 meetings: Mirassol 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Mirassol 1–0 Fluminense.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fluminense vs Mirassol
Has the model earned this number?
Fluminense at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fluminense vs Mirassol
Fluminense
Serie A
- W3-0away to Vitoria6 November 2026
- W2-1Internacional28 October 2026
- L1-2away to Chapecoense24 October 2026
- L1-2Santos18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Flamengo11 October 2026
Mirassol
Serie A
- W2-1away to Chapecoense3 November 2026
- L0-2away to Corinthians30 October 2026
- D1-1Sao Paulo24 October 2026
- W2-0Internacional16 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bahia11 October 2026
What these results say
- Fluminense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fluminense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fluminense had three goals or more.
- Mirassol conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Mirassol had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55 | 42 | +13 | 57 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Fluminense
Chance to finish in the top four · 80% today
Mirassol
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 13% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Fluminense vs Mirassol
- 23 May 2026Mirassol 1–0 FluminenseSerie A
- 6 November 2025Fluminense 1–0 MirassolSerie A
- 9 October 2025Mirassol 2–1 FluminenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Fluminense and Mirassol
Fluminense
GoalsAssists
- John Kennedy91
Mirassol
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fluminense the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Fluminense against 0.95 for Mirassol. Fluminense's attack/defence rating is 1.02/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.12 for Mirassol.
How the model reaches 53% for Fluminense to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Fluminense to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Fluminense's ratings add 5 points and Mirassol's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Fluminense's ratings50%+5
- Mirassol's ratings53%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Fluminense at home · Mirassol away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Fluminense 34, Mirassol 34.
Fluminense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (19 goals); Mirassol have let in 14 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Fluminense
- vs Cruzeiro27 Nov · Serie Awin 47%
- at RB Bragantino3 Dec · Serie Awin 32%
Mirassol
- vs Atletico Paranaense29 Nov · Serie Awin 43%
- at Gremio3 Dec · Serie Awin 30%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.