Al Taawon
vs
Abha
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al Taawon 1–0 Abha
The model makes it 40% Al Taawon, 31% draw, 29% Abha — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Al Taawon 1.23, Abha 0.95.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Al Taawon's rating is built from 46 Saudi Pro League matches and Abha's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 716 matches.
Key facts
- Al Taawon are 17th on 5 points from 12 games; Abha are bottom on 3 points from 11 games — Pro League.
- Al Taawon have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Al-Ettifaq.
- Abha have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Al-Ittihad.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 September 2024, ended Abha 2–3 Al Taawon.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Taawon vs Abha
Has the model earned this number?
Al Taawon at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al Taawon vs Abha
Al Taawon
Pro League
- D1-1Al-Ettifaq31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Al Riyadh24 October 2026
- L0-1Al-Qadisiyah FC20 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al Diriyah17 October 2026
- L0-3away to Al Shabab11 October 2026
Abha
Pro League
- D1-1Al-Ittihad30 October 2026
- L0-1Al-Faisaly FC27 October 2026
- L0-2away to NEOM24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Qadisiyah FC16 October 2026
- D0-0away to Al Diriyah13 September 2026
What these results say
- Al Taawon did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Al Taawon conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Abha did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Abha conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Abha had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Al Taawon | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 5 |
| 18 | Abha | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al Taawon
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 52% today
Abha
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 70% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Al Taawon vs Abha
- 25 September 2024Abha 2–3 Al TaawonKing's Cup
- 15 February 2024Abha 1–1 Al TaawonPro League
- 25 August 2023Al Taawon 1–0 AbhaPro League
- 5 April 2023Abha 1–1 Al TaawonPro League
- 21 December 2022Abha 4–3 Al TaawonKing's Cup
- 11 October 2022Al Taawon 1–3 AbhaPro League
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Taawon the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Al Taawon against 0.95 for Abha. Al Taawon's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.36 for Abha.
How the model reaches 40% for Al Taawon to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al Taawon to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Al Taawon's ratings add 2 points and Abha's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage40%+3
- Both sides at this match's level37%−3
- Al Taawon's ratings39%+2
- Abha's ratings40%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al Taawon at home · Abha away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al Taawon 12, Abha 11.
Al Taawon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Abha have let in 0 there.
Abha score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Al Taawon have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al Taawon
- at NEOM26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 22%
- vs Al-Faisaly FC3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 39%
- at Al-Ittihad10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 19%
- at Al Khaleej Saihat14 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 31%
Abha
- vs Al Riyadh26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 39%
- at Al-Hilal3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 8%
- vs Al Kholood7 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 36%
- vs Al-Fateh10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 36%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.