Weekend preview, 10-11 October: Bodo/Glimt the surest call of 321 matches
Our model has a prediction for 321 matches this weekend (10-11 October), across 49 competitions. It is surest about Bodo/Glimt: 78% to beat Kristiansund BK, most likely 3-0. 42 matches are within three points either way, games where the draw is a real outcome.
The biggest matches
- Liverpool vs Manchester City (Premier League (England), Sunday 15:30 UTC): 31% / 25% / 44%, most likely 1-2.
- Aston Villa vs Brentford (Premier League (England), Saturday 14:00 UTC): 40% / 26% / 34%, most likely 2-1.
- Chelsea vs Bournemouth (Premier League (England), Saturday 14:00 UTC): 38% / 25% / 37%, most likely 2-1.
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal (La Liga, Saturday 19:00 UTC): 60% / 21% / 19%, most likely 2-1.
- Como vs AS Roma (Serie A (Italy), Sunday 10:30 UTC): 28% / 27% / 45%, most likely 0-1.
The surest calls
- Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK (Eliteserien): Bodo/Glimt at 78%, most likely 3-0.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Bnei Sakhnin (Ligat Ha'al): Maccabi Tel Aviv at 76%, most likely 2-0.
- Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven (Jupiler Pro League): Union St. Gilloise at 74%, most likely 2-0.
- Benfica vs Vitória SC (Primeira Liga): Benfica at 73%, most likely 2-0.
- Rangers vs Kilmarnock (Premiership): Rangers at 72%, most likely 3-0.
For scale: calls the model rated at 70% or more have landed 62% of the time, across 190 settled predictions. Sure is not certain.
The coin flips
Home and away within three points of each other. The model still names a pick, but the draw is live.
- Chelsea vs Bournemouth (Premier League (England)): 38% / 25% / 37%.
- Ipswich vs Fulham (Premier League (England)): 37% / 27% / 36%.
- Rio Ave vs Nacional (Primeira Liga): 37% / 28% / 35%.
- Gaziantep FK vs Çorum FK (Süper Lig): 37% / 25% / 38%.
- Zulte Waregem vs Gent (Jupiler Pro League): 35% / 29% / 36%.
And 37 more, each marked "Tight game" on its match page.
How to read these
The three numbers are the model's chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. Every match has its own page with the full breakdown, and the fixtures page lists the whole weekend. How the probabilities are made is in the methodology; how often they have been right, in the track record. Statistical estimates, not betting advice.