11 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Benfica vs Vitória SC Primeira Liga prediction & result

Lisbon
Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Benfica 2-0 Vitória SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 73% Benfica, 17% draw, 10% Vitória SC — fair odds of 1.37, 5.88 and 10.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Benfica at 73%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Benfica99%Draw1%Vitória SC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
Tony Strata
⚽Samuel Dahlassist: Vangelis Pavlidis
24'
33'
Gonçalo Nogueira
50'
Toni Borevković
Leandro Barreiro
52'
Tomás Araújo
55'
57'
Fábio Samuel Amorim Silva
🔁Leandro Barreiroout: Fredrik Aursnes
61'
🔁Andreas Schjelderupout: Claudio Echeverri
61'
66'
🔁Lohann Doucetout: Beni Mukendi
67'
🔁Miguel Nogueiraout: Telmo Arcanjo
72'
Balieiro Thiago
🔁Alexander Bahout: Heorhii Sudakov
73'
🔁Rafa Silvaout: Dodi Lukebakio
73'
73'
🔁Gonçalo Nogueiraout: Matija Mitrović
73'
🔁Arnel Jakupovićout: Patrick Ouotro
⚽Heorhii Sudakovassist: Claudio Echeverri
75'
81'
🔁Tony Strataout: Miguel Magalhaes
🔁Vangelis Pavlidisout: Jhon Durán
82'

Match stats — Benfica vs Vitória SC

62%Possession38%
23Shots8
5On target0
11Corners6
2.84xG0.49

Goals against chances

Benfica2 from 2.84 xGless than the chances were worth
Vitória SC0 from 0.49 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Benfica 4-2-3-1
  • 24Samuel SoaresG
  • 6A. BahD
  • 3A. CircatiD
  • 44Tomás AraújoD
  • 26S. DahlD
  • 18L. BarreiroM
  • 36João PalhinhaM
  • 27RafaM
  • 25G. PrestianniM
  • 21A. SchjelderupM
  • 14V. PavlidisF
Substitutes
  • 30C. EcheverriM
  • 22J. DuránF
  • 34S. El KarouaniD
  • 88Tiago FreitasM
  • 8F. AursnesM
  • 72A. CabralF
  • 62J. NetoD
  • 11D. LukebakioF
  • 16ManuM
Coach: Marco Silva
Vitória SC 4-2-3-1
  • 48O. ZychG
  • 23T. StrataD
  • 21T. BorevkovićD
  • 28Thiago BalieiroD
  • 13João MendesD
  • 44L. DoucetM
  • 8Gonçalo NogueiraM
  • 17Miguel NogueiraM
  • 20SamuM
  • 7O. CamaraM
  • 9A. JakupovicF
Substitutes
  • 98Lucas FurtadoG
  • 18Telmo ArcanjoM
  • 2Miguel MagaD
  • 19V. AnderssonM
  • 82F. DiasD
  • 16BeniM
  • 6M. MitrovićM
  • 29V. OuotroF
  • 4Óscar RivasD
Coach: Tiago Margarido

Form going into Benfica vs Vitória SC

Benfica

Primeira Liga

  • L1-3away to FC Porto20 September 2026

Vitória SC

Primeira Liga

  • D1-1Moreirense20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Benfica119113010+2028
14Vitória SC112361112-19

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Benfica vs Vitória SC

  • 21 March 2026Benfica 3–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
  • 1 November 2025Vitória SC 0–3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
  • 19 April 2025Vitória SC 0–3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
  • 7 December 2024Benfica 1–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
  • 11 February 2024Vitória SC 2–2 BenficaPrimeira Liga

The full Benfica vs Vitória SC record →

Leading scorers: Benfica and Vitória SC

Benfica

GoalsAssists

  • V. Pavlidis113
  • G. Prestianni74

Vitória SC

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Benfica beat Vitória SC 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Benfica at 73%. The goals: Samuel Dahl 24' for Benfica, Heorhii Sudakov 75' for Benfica. On expected goals it finished 2.84–0.49.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Benfica a 21.0% chance to finish top of the regular season: 22.2% after a win, 15.5% after a draw, 15.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.2%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.

For Vitória SC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 26.2% going in: 16.2% after a win, 24.1% after a draw, 27.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.0%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Benfica v Vitória SC has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 64% / 22% / 14% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 73% / 17% / 10%: the biggest move is Benfica's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Benfica win73%▲ +9
  2. Draw17%▼ −5
  3. Vitória SC win10%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.