Ipswich
vs
Fulham
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Ipswich 2–1 Fulham
The model makes it 36% Ipswich, 28% draw, 36% Fulham — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Ipswich 1.50, Fulham 1.47.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Ipswich and Fulham are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ipswich vs Fulham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ipswich at 36% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ipswich vs Fulham
Ipswich
- L0-1away to Everton19 September 2026
- W3-2away to Crystal Palace12 September 2026
- L0-2Liverpool4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Manchester United30 August 2026
- W2-1Sunderland22 August 2026
Fulham
- D1-1Manchester United20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Liverpool12 September 2026
- L2-3Crystal Palace5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sunderland30 August 2026
- L2-3Chelsea24 August 2026
What these results say
- Ipswich conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fulham did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fulham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ipswich | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ipswich vs Fulham
- 5 January 2025Fulham 2–2 IpswichPremier League
- 31 August 2024Ipswich 1–1 FulhamPremier League
- 1 November 2023Ipswich 1–3 FulhamLeague Cup
- 16 September 2020Ipswich 0–1 FulhamLeague Cup
- 2 January 2018Fulham 4–1 IpswichChampionship
- 26 August 2017Ipswich 0–2 FulhamChampionship
Leading scorers: Ipswich and Fulham
Ipswich
- Emersonn2 goals1 assists
- L. Davis2 goals1 assists
Fulham
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ipswich carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.82 for Fulham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Ipswich and 1.47 for Fulham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ipswich rate 1.02 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fulham rate 0.86 and 0.92.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ipswich the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.5 expected goals for Ipswich against 1.47 for Fulham. Ipswich's attack/defence rating is 1.02/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/0.92 for Fulham.