11 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Rio Ave vs Nacional Primeira Liga prediction & result

Vila do Conde
Referee: Carlos Macedo
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Rio Ave 3-2 Nacional.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Rio Ave, 28% draw, 35% Nacional — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rio Ave at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rio Ave95%Draw5%Nacional0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

32'
⚽N. Kaderassist: Chico Gonçalves
⚽Sebastian Clemensen
39'
João Tomé Baptista
50'
João Tomé Baptista
54'
⚽Diogo Bezerraassist: Sebastian Clemensen
57'
59'
⚽N. Kader
🔁Sebastian Clemensenout: Roland Galcik
63'
🔁Miguel Patricíoout: Francisco Petrasso
63'
68'
🔁Daniel de Melo Araujo Juniorout: Fernando Nava Ortega
68'
🔁Chiheb Labidiout: Miguel Baeza
•Jalen Blesa
69'
⚽Jalen Blesa (pen)
72'
Jalen Blesa
73'
🔁Diogo Bezerraout: Diogo Nascimento
76'
🔁Malik Selloukiout: Simón García
76'
🔁Jalen Blesaout: Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro
78'
78'
🔁Matchoi Djalóout: Allen Obando
81'
🔁N. Kaderout: Joel da Silva
81'
🔁Song Min-kyuout: Stavros Gavriel
Roland Galcik
90+1'

Match stats — Rio Ave vs Nacional

56%Possession44%
11Shots12
7On target5
8Corners8
1.74xG1.28

Goals against chances

Rio Ave3 from 1.74 xGmore than the chances were worth
Nacional2 from 1.28 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rio Ave 4-2-3-1
  • 32Vitor HugoG
  • 20João ToméD
  • 5A. NtoiD
  • 39Gustavo ManchaD
  • 17M. VrousaiD
  • 79M. PatricioM
  • 54G. LiavasM
  • 80S. ClemmensenM
  • 19M. SelloukiM
  • 7Diogo BezerraM
  • 11J. BlesaF
Substitutes
  • 60CaikeD
  • 30R. GalčíkF
  • 27T. MedinaM
  • 44T. NikitscherM
  • 23F. PetrassoD
  • 90Diogo NascimentoM
  • 70A. WenckM
  • 8Ryan GuilhermeM
  • 99E. van der GouwG
Coach: Vasco Seabra
Nacional 4-2-3-1
  • 1Renato BellucciG
  • 88DeivisonD
  • 33Francisco GonçalvesD
  • 38Zé VitorD
  • 21W. KokoloD
  • 15C. LabidiM
  • 31D. DongmoM
  • 10Daniel JúniorM
  • 20Matchoi DjalóM
  • 12Song Min-KyuM
  • 29N. KaderF
Substitutes
  • 2Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la CruzD
  • 26Joel da SilvaM
  • 13João GonçalvesG
  • 9A. ObandoF
  • 17F. NavaF
  • 14Ivanildo FernandesD
  • 7M. JensenM
  • 11S. GavrielM
  • 8Miguel BaezaM
Coach: Alexandre Santos

Form going into Rio Ave vs Nacional

Rio Ave

Primeira Liga

  • L0-1away to Alverca19 September 2026

Nacional

Primeira Liga

  • L0-4Famalicao19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Rio Ave11218924-157
13Nacional113171119-810

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rio Ave vs Nacional

  • 25 January 2026Nacional 4–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • 17 August 2025Rio Ave 1–1 NacionalPrimeira Liga
  • 10 May 2025Nacional 3–3 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • 29 December 2024Rio Ave 2–1 NacionalPrimeira Liga
  • 31 July 2024Rio Ave 1–1 NacionalFriendlies Clubs

The full Rio Ave vs Nacional record →

The result against the call

Rio Ave beat Nacional 3–2. The model had made a win for Rio Ave its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: N. Kader 32' for Nacional, Sebastian Clemensen 39' for Rio Ave, Diogo Bezerra 57' for Rio Ave, N. Kader 59' for Nacional, Jalen Blesa (penalty) 72' for Rio Ave. Sent off: João Tomé Baptista (Rio Ave) 54'. On expected goals it finished 1.74–1.28.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rio Ave a 51.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 42.5% after a win, 52.9% after a draw, 59.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.5%, 8.6 points lower than before the match.

For Nacional the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 42.6% going in: 33.6% after a win, 42.2% after a draw, 50.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.6%, 8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.