Maccabi Tel Aviv
vs
Bnei Sakhnin
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Maccabi Tel Aviv 2–0 Bnei Sakhnin
The model makes it 66% Maccabi Tel Aviv, 21% draw, 13% Bnei Sakhnin — fair odds of 1.52, 4.76 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Maccabi Tel Aviv 2.80, Bnei Sakhnin 0.65.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Bnei Sakhnin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maccabi Tel Aviv at 66% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Bnei Sakhnin
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- W2-1away to Maccabi Netanya19 September 2026
- W4-1Hapoel Tel Aviv14 September 2026
- W4-1away to Hapoel Beer Sheva7 September 2026
- W3-1Maccabi Haifa31 August 2026
- W5-2away to Hapoel Jerusalem23 August 2026
Bnei Sakhnin
- W1-0Hapoel Ramat Gan19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Hapoel Haifa14 September 2026
- L0-1Beitar Jerusalem7 September 2026
- L1-2Maccabi Petah Tikva29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Maccabi Netanya24 August 2026
What these results say
- Maccabi Tel Aviv won every one of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bnei Sakhnin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 15 |
| 10 | Bnei Sakhnin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Maccabi Tel Aviv and Bnei Sakhnin
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- Dor Peretz5 goals1 assists
- E. Sokler2 goals1 assists
- O. Davida2 goals
Bnei Sakhnin
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Maccabi Tel Aviv carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.05 for Bnei Sakhnin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.80 goals for Maccabi Tel Aviv and 0.65 for Bnei Sakhnin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maccabi Tel Aviv rate 1.01 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bnei Sakhnin rate 0.32 and 1.73.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maccabi Tel Aviv the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.8 expected goals for Maccabi Tel Aviv against 0.65 for Bnei Sakhnin. Maccabi Tel Aviv's attack/defence rating is 1.01/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.32/1.73 for Bnei Sakhnin.