Gaziantep FK
vs
Çorum FK
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Gaziantep FK 1–2 Çorum FK
The model makes it 36% Gaziantep FK, 27% draw, 37% Çorum FK — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Gaziantep FK 1.74, Çorum FK 1.79.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Gaziantep FK and Çorum FK are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gaziantep FK vs Çorum FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Çorum FK at 37% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gaziantep FK vs Çorum FK
Gaziantep FK
- L0-2away to Kocaelispor19 September 2026
- D0-0Fenerbahçe14 September 2026
- W4-2away to Göztepe7 September 2026
- L1-2Rizespor29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Eyüpspor23 August 2026
Çorum FK
- L1-2Alanyaspor19 September 2026
- W5-1away to Samsunspor12 September 2026
- W3-0Eyüpspor6 September 2026
- L2-6away to Beşiktaş31 August 2026
- L0-1Kasımpaşa22 August 2026
What these results say
- Çorum FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Çorum FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Çorum FK had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Gaziantep FK | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Çorum FK | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Gaziantep FK and Çorum FK
Gaziantep FK
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Çorum FK
- C. Ramírez4 goals1 assists
- A. Kyziridis3 goals2 assists
- Ermin Mahmić2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gaziantep FK carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.69 for Çorum FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.79 for Çorum FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gaziantep FK rate 0.70 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Çorum FK rate 1.03 and 1.49.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gaziantep FK, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gaziantep FK a 0% chance of the title and Çorum FK 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Çorum FK the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Gaziantep FK against 1.79 for Çorum FK. Gaziantep FK's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/1.49 for Çorum FK.