11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Gaziantep FK vs Çorum FK Süper Lig prediction & result

Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep
Referee: Gurcan Hasova, Türkiye
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Gaziantep FK 0-3 Çorum FK.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Gaziantep FK, 25% draw, 38% Çorum FK — fair odds of 2.70, 4.00 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Çorum FK at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gaziantep FK0%Draw1%Çorum FK99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

37'
⚽C. Underassist: M. Diomande
43'
Mohammed Diomande
🔁O. Ozcicekout: U. Meleke
58'
58'
🔁B. Ozdemirout: Y. Ramadani
🔁H. Dervisogluout: D. Camara
59'
60'
⚽A. Kyziridisassist: G. Sazdagi
🔁V. Gidadoout: S. Dursun
73'
73'
🔁G. Sazdagiout: M. Karlsbakk
81'
Alexandros Kyziridis
83'
⚽M. Karlsbakkassist: A. Kyziridis
🔁L. Perezout: S. Destici
84'
🔁A. Maximout: S. Hansen
84'
84'
🔁A. Borzaout: A. Sengul
84'
🔁A. Kyziridisout: E. Mahmic
84'
🔁C. Underout: Y. Moukoko
85'
Youssoufa Moukoko
Sontje Hansen
90+8'
Myenty Abena
90+6'
•Sontje Hansen
90+6'

Match stats — Gaziantep FK vs Çorum FK

55%Possession45%
13Shots13
2On target7
9Corners5
1.42xG2.36

Goals against chances

Gaziantep FK0 from 1.42 xGless than the chances were worth
Çorum FK3 from 2.36 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gaziantep FK 4-1-4-1
  • 25Kacper TobiaszG
  • 2Luis PérezD
  • 14Myenty AbenaD
  • 21Abakar SyllaD
  • 23Kerim ÇalhanoğluD
  • 61Ogün ÖzçiçekM
  • 18Deian SorescuM
  • 8Gidado Victor Ntino-EmoM
  • 44Alexandru MaximM
  • 10Kacper KozłowskiM
  • 28Halil DervişoğluF
Substitutes
  • 6Ulrich MelekeM
  • 3Drissa CamaraM
  • 19Serdar DursunF
  • 77Sabahattin DesticiD
  • 22Sontje HansenF
  • 35Ataberk DadakdenizG
  • 5Efe SarıkayaD
  • 83Mervan MüjdeciM
  • 11Mirza CihanM
Çorum FK 3-4-3
  • 1Marcos FelipeG
  • 5Alexandre PenetraD
  • 2Çağlar SöyüncüD
  • 6Hrvoje SmolčićD
  • 11Gökhan SazdağıM
  • 3Berat ÖzdemirM
  • 10Mohammed DiomandeM
  • 24Andrei BorzaM
  • 7Cengiz ÜnderF
  • 19Jesús RamírezF
  • 89Alexandros KyziridisF
Substitutes
  • 20Ylber RamadaniM
  • 8Markus KarlsbakkM
  • 15Arda ŞengülD
  • 26Ermin MahmićM
  • 14Youssoufa MoukokoF
  • 18Erhan ErentürkG
  • 16FredyM
  • 21Göktan GürpüzM
  • 30Ahmed IldızM

Form going into Gaziantep FK vs Çorum FK

Gaziantep FK

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Kocaelispor19 September 2026
  • D0-0Fenerbahçe14 September 2026
  • W4-2away to Göztepe7 September 2026
  • L1-2Rizespor29 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Eyüpspor23 August 2026

Çorum FK

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Alanyaspor19 September 2026
  • W5-1away to Samsunspor12 September 2026
  • W3-0Eyüpspor6 September 2026
  • L2-6away to Beşiktaş31 August 2026
  • L0-1Kasımpaşa22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Çorum FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Çorum FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Çorum FK had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Gaziantep FK11227919-108
9Çorum FK115152121016

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Gaziantep FK and Çorum FK

Gaziantep FK

No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Çorum FK

GoalsAssists

  • C. Ramírez61
  • A. Kyziridis44
  • C. Ünder42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Çorum FK won 3–0 at Gaziantep FK. The model had made a win for Çorum FK its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: C. Under 37' for Çorum FK, A. Kyziridis 60' for Çorum FK, M. Karlsbakk 83' for Çorum FK. On expected goals it finished 1.42–2.36.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gaziantep FK a 15.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 10.9% after a win, 15.1% after a draw, 19.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.0%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.

For Çorum FK the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 9.5% going in: 11.9% after a win, 8.4% after a draw, 6.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.9%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Gaziantep FK v Çorum FK has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 36% / 27% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 37% / 25% / 38%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. Gaziantep FK win37%▲ +1
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Çorum FK win38%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.