Rangers
vs
Kilmarnock
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Rangers 3–0 Kilmarnock
The model makes it 63% Rangers, 21% draw, 16% Kilmarnock — fair odds of 1.59, 4.76 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Rangers 3.03, Kilmarnock 0.95.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Rangers vs Kilmarnock
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rangers at 63% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rangers vs Kilmarnock
Rangers
- W1-0away to Celtic20 September 2026
- W1-0St Mirren9 September 2026
- W1-0Motherwell5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Falkirk2 September 2026
- W1-0away to Aberdeen30 August 2026
Kilmarnock
- D1-1Heart of Midlothian19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Hibernian15 September 2026
- D0-0away to Aberdeen5 September 2026
- L0-1St Mirren2 September 2026
- L0-4Dundee United29 August 2026
What these results say
- Rangers won every one of these 5 matches.
- Rangers scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rangers kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kilmarnock failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kilmarnock had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rangers | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 16 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rangers vs Kilmarnock
- 4 February 2026Rangers 5–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 6 December 2025Kilmarnock 0–3 RangersPremiership
- 26 October 2025Rangers 3–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 26 February 2025Kilmarnock 2–4 RangersPremiership
- 4 December 2024Rangers 6–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 20 October 2024Kilmarnock 1–0 RangersPremiership
Leading scorers: Rangers and Kilmarnock
Rangers
- L. Shankland3 goals
- R. Naderi2 goals1 assists
Kilmarnock
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rangers carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.23 for Kilmarnock. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.03 goals for Rangers and 0.95 for Kilmarnock. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rangers rate 0.87 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kilmarnock rate 0.59 and 2.08.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rangers a 22.2% chance of the title and Kilmarnock 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rangers the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.03 expected goals for Rangers against 0.95 for Kilmarnock. Rangers's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/2.08 for Kilmarnock.