Rangers vs Kilmarnock Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Rangers 3-1 Kilmarnock.
Before kick-off the model made it 72% Rangers, 17% draw, 11% Kilmarnock — fair odds of 1.39, 5.88 and 9.09.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Rangers at 72%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rangers vs Kilmarnock
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1I. PandurG
- 21D. SterlingD
- 37E. FernandezD
- 24O. MakhanyaD
- 29J. PenriceD
- 6D. NeilM
- 43N. RaskinM
- 10Minsu KimM
- 20R. NaderiM
- 23D. GassamaM
- 19K. KelsyF
- 25T. RommensD
- 52Findlay CurtisF
- 42T. ChukwuaniM
- 26B. BouananiF
- 22V. DragojevićM
- 4B. GodfreyD
- 31L. KellyG
- 28B. MiovskiF
- 18K. NedeljkovićD
- 12C. FerrieG
- 3Michael-John Kamson-KamaraD
- 4C. McCarthyD
- 14G. StangerD
- 21M. Schjønning-LarsenD
- 36A. TshibolaM
- 18T. LoweryM
- 8E. RingM
- 10T. John-JulesM
- 11G. KiltieM
- 9J. HugillF
- 2J. BrandonD
- 20N. CleșcencoF
- 29D. DanielsF
- 6R. DeasD
- 7R. McKenzieM
- 19J. MeierD
- 5M. O'HaraM
- 40C. ArmourG
- 27I. OwenF
Form going into Rangers vs Kilmarnock
Rangers
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Celtic20 September 2026
- W1-0St Mirren9 September 2026
- W1-0Motherwell5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Falkirk2 September 2026
- W1-0away to Aberdeen30 August 2026
Kilmarnock
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Heart of Midlothian19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Hibernian15 September 2026
- D0-0away to Aberdeen5 September 2026
- L0-1St Mirren2 September 2026
- L0-4Dundee United29 August 2026
What these results say
- Rangers won every one of these 5 matches.
- Rangers scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rangers kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kilmarnock failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kilmarnock had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rangers | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 27 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rangers vs Kilmarnock
- 4 February 2026Rangers 5–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 6 December 2025Kilmarnock 0–3 RangersPremiership
- 26 October 2025Rangers 3–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 26 February 2025Kilmarnock 2–4 RangersPremiership
- 4 December 2024Rangers 6–0 KilmarnockPremiership
Leading scorers: Rangers and Kilmarnock
Rangers
GoalsAssists
- R. Naderi63
- K. Kelsy40
Kilmarnock
GoalsAssists
- G. Kiltie30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rangers beat Kilmarnock 3–1. The model had made a win for Rangers its most likely outcome, at 72%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–0. The goals: Ryan Naderi 15' for Rangers, Kevin Kelsy 24' for Rangers, Ryan Naderi 44' for Rangers, Nicky Clescenco 90' for Kilmarnock. On expected goals it finished 1.50–1.21.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rangers a 34.7% chance to finish top of the regular season: 36.2% after a win, 28.7% after a draw, 26.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.2%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.
For Kilmarnock the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 75.9% going in: 66.0% after a win, 72.4% after a draw, 77.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 77.3%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Rangers v Kilmarnock has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 63% / 21% / 16% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 72% / 17% / 11%: the biggest move is Rangers's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Rangers win72%▲ +9
- Draw17%▼ −4
- Kilmarnock win11%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Rangers's most recent league matches and Kilmarnock's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.