Union St. Gilloise
vs
OH Leuven
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Union St. Gilloise 2–0 OH Leuven
The model makes it 66% Union St. Gilloise, 22% draw, 12% OH Leuven — fair odds of 1.52, 4.55 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Union St. Gilloise 2.52, OH Leuven 0.52.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union St. Gilloise at 66% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven
Union St. Gilloise
- W2-0away to Antwerp20 September 2026
- W5-0Lommel United12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Charleroi5 September 2026
- W3-0away to St. Truiden2 September 2026
- W3-0Anderlecht30 August 2026
OH Leuven
- W2-0RAAL La Louvière19 September 2026
- D1-1Cercle Brugge12 September 2026
- L0-3away to SK Beveren6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Gent3 September 2026
- L1-2Standard Liege29 August 2026
What these results say
- Union St. Gilloise won every one of these 5 matches.
- Union St. Gilloise scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Union St. Gilloise kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- OH Leuven failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- OH Leuven conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union St. Gilloise | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 3 | +18 | 19 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven
- 24 January 2026OH Leuven 0–0 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 3 August 2025Union St. Gilloise 5–0 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 19 January 2025Union St. Gilloise 1–0 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 24 November 2024OH Leuven 1–1 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 2 March 2024OH Leuven 0–2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 12 August 2023Union St. Gilloise 5–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven
Union St. Gilloise
- R. Florucz4 goals
- R. Mofokeng3 goals1 assists
OH Leuven
No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Union St. Gilloise carry a model rating of 7.21 against 6.54 for OH Leuven. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.52 goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.52 for OH Leuven. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Union St. Gilloise rate 1.28 in attack and 0.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; OH Leuven rate 0.64 and 1.22.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Union St. Gilloise a 63.4% chance of the title and OH Leuven 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union St. Gilloise the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise against 0.52 for OH Leuven. Union St. Gilloise's attack/defence rating is 1.28/0.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.22 for OH Leuven.