11 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels
Referee: N. Verboomen
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Union St. Gilloise 1-1 OH Leuven.

Before kick-off the model made it 74% Union St. Gilloise, 18% draw, 8% OH Leuven — fair odds of 1.35, 5.56 and 12.50.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Union St. Gilloise at 74%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
William Balikwisha
17'
⚽D. Opokuassist: W. George
42'
Jamie Lawrence
43'
Óscar Gil
🔁N. Chibaniout: D. De Roeve
56'
🔁R. Mofokengout: R. Florucz
56'
⚽D. Opoku (OG)
66'
🔁D. Olaruout: A. Ait El Hadj
67'
🔁Guilherme Smithout: D. Aquino
67'
69'
🔁L. Lakomyout: B. Verstraete
72'
🔁R. Mirisolaout: C. Ikwuemesi
85'
🔁D. Opokuout: T. Ogiwara
85'
🔁S. Schrijversout: E. Pletinckx
85'
🔁W. Georgeout: K. Vaesen
Louis Patris
90+1'
🔁M. Syllaout: D. Egel
90'

Match stats — Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven

63%Possession37%
18Shots14
2On target2
9Corners4
1.29xG1.33

Goals against chances

Union St. Gilloise1 from 1.29 xGabout what the chances were worth
OH Leuven1 from 1.33 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Union St. Gilloise 3-1-4-2
  • 12H. KoffiG
  • 55N. HavenaarD
  • 29M. SyllaD
  • 4N. ChibaniD
  • 6K. Van De PerreM
  • 27L. PatrisM
  • 23B. ZeneliM
  • 28D. OlaruM
  • 11Guilherme SmithM
  • 9M. BiondicF
  • 38R. MofokengF
Substitutes
  • 1V. ChambaereG
  • 71K. BoetsG
  • 21D. De RoeveD
  • 33D. EgelD
  • 10A. Ait El HadjM
  • 14I. PavlicM
  • 20D. AquinoF
  • 30R. FloruczF
Coach: David Hubert
OH Leuven 3-4-3
  • 13K. VromanG
  • 5J. LawrenceD
  • 3N. DussenneD
  • 34R. NyakossiD
  • 27O. GilM
  • 6W. GeorgeM
  • 8S. SchrijversM
  • 99D. OpokuM
  • 24L. LakomyF
  • 18R. MirisolaF
  • 21W. BalikwishaF
Substitutes
  • 61O. JochmansG
  • 26T. OgiwaraD
  • 28E. PletinckxD
  • 30A. FontanarosaD
  • 4B. VerstraeteM
  • 72S. MurruM
  • 17K. VaesenF
  • 19C. IkwuemesiF
  • 7E. AddaiF
Coach: Timmy Simons

Form going into Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven

Union St. Gilloise

Jupiler Pro League

  • W2-0away to Antwerp20 September 2026

OH Leuven

Jupiler Pro League

  • W2-0RAAL La Louvière19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Union St. Gilloise11920307+2329
10OH Leuven113351217-512

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven

  • 24 January 2026OH Leuven 0–0 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
  • 3 August 2025Union St. Gilloise 5–0 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
  • 19 January 2025Union St. Gilloise 1–0 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
  • 24 November 2024OH Leuven 1–1 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
  • 2 March 2024OH Leuven 0–2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven

Union St. Gilloise

GoalsAssists

  • R. Florucz50
  • R. Mofokeng42

OH Leuven

No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Union St. Gilloise at 74% and given a draw 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: D. Opoku 17' for OH Leuven, D. Opoku (own goal) 66' for Union St. Gilloise. Sent off: Louis Patris (Union St. Gilloise) 90+1'. On expected goals it finished 1.29–1.33.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Union St. Gilloise a 38.5% chance to finish top of the regular season: 39.8% after a win, 35.5% after a draw, 26.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 35.5%, 3 points lower than before the match.

For OH Leuven the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 42.9% going in: 31.6% after a win, 38.5% after a draw, 44.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 38.5%, 4.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Union St. Gilloise v OH Leuven has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 66% / 22% / 12% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 74% / 18% / 8%: the biggest move is Union St. Gilloise's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Union St. Gilloise win74%▲ +8
  2. Draw18%▼ −4
  3. OH Leuven win8%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.