Zulte Waregem
vs
Gent
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Zulte Waregem 0–1 Gent
The model makes it 34% Zulte Waregem, 30% draw, 36% Gent — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Zulte Waregem 1.22, Gent 1.26.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Zulte Waregem and Gent are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Zulte Waregem vs Gent
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gent at 36% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Zulte Waregem vs Gent
Zulte Waregem
- L0-3away to Anderlecht19 September 2026
- L0-1Charleroi13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Kortrijk6 September 2026
- D2-2away to KVC Westerlo30 August 2026
- W4-0SK Beveren22 August 2026
Gent
- W2-1Standard Liege18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Genk13 September 2026
- W3-0away to Cercle Brugge6 September 2026
- W1-0OH Leuven3 September 2026
- W2-1Club Brugge KV30 August 2026
What these results say
- Gent went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Gent scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gent won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Zulte Waregem | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 2 | Gent | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Zulte Waregem vs Gent
- 13 March 2026Gent 2–0 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League
- 19 October 2025Zulte Waregem 4–1 GentJupiler Pro League
- 20 July 2024Gent 0–2 Zulte WaregemFriendlies Clubs
- 19 July 2023Gent 4–2 Zulte WaregemFriendlies Clubs
- 12 March 2023Zulte Waregem 2–6 GentJupiler Pro League
- 11 September 2022Gent 2–0 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Zulte Waregem and Gent
Zulte Waregem
- Á. Zalán3 goals
Gent
- J. Y. Vergara Ortega3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Zulte Waregem carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.92 for Gent. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.26 for Gent. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zulte Waregem rate 0.91 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gent rate 0.94 and 0.83.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zulte Waregem a 0.1% chance of the title and Gent 10.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gent the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Zulte Waregem against 1.26 for Gent. Zulte Waregem's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/0.83 for Gent.