Regular Season - 23 · 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK Eliteserien prediction

Aspmyra Stadion

Our model says: Bodo/Glimt 3–0 Kristiansund BK

The model makes it 69% Bodo/Glimt, 19% draw, 12% Kristiansund BK — fair odds of 1.45, 5.26 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (11%).

Expected goals: Bodo/Glimt 3.19, Kristiansund BK 0.71.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.

Model confidence: High.

Published

Live win probability

From kick-off
Bodo/Glimt69%1.45
Draw19%5.26
Kristiansund BK12%8.33

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK

49%
Both teams to score
74%
Over 2.5 goals
26%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Bodo/Glimt win Draw Kristiansund BK win
  1. 3–011%
  2. 2–010%
  3. 4–09%
  4. 3–18%
  5. 2–17%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 4–16%

Scores read Bodo/Glimt first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 42%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bodo/Glimt at 69% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK

Bodo/Glimt

  • L1-2away to Brann20 September 2026
  • W3-2Sandefjord14 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Fredrikstad4 September 2026
  • W4-2Rosenborg30 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Valerenga8 August 2026

Kristiansund BK

  • L1-3Rosenborg19 September 2026
  • L1-8away to Viking13 September 2026
  • W2-0Tromso6 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Ham-Kam30 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Fredrikstad16 August 2026

What these results say

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Bodo/Glimt2116235319+3450
15Kristiansund BK2154122140-1919

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK

  • 6 April 2026Kristiansund BK 0–3 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
  • 12 September 2025Bodo/Glimt 7–1 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
  • 5 July 2025Kristiansund BK 1–1 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
  • 29 September 2024Bodo/Glimt 4–0 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
  • 12 May 2024Kristiansund BK 2–4 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
  • 23 October 2022Bodo/Glimt 5–0 Kristiansund BKEliteserien

Leading scorers: Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK

Bodo/Glimt

  • A. Helmersen11 goals1 assists
  • K. Høgh7 goals4 assists

Kristiansund BK

  • L. Alvheim10 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

A clear gap in the ratings

Bodo/Glimt carry a model rating of 6.92 against 6.29 for Kristiansund BK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 3.19 goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.71 for Kristiansund BK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Bodo/Glimt rate 1.09 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kristiansund BK rate 0.53 and 1.63.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bodo/Glimt a 57.4% chance of the title and Kristiansund BK 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Bodo/Glimt the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.19 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt against 0.71 for Kristiansund BK. Bodo/Glimt's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.63 for Kristiansund BK.