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Articles — page 9

Match preview · 16 October 2026 · Serie A

Mirassol vs Internacional: why the model makes it Mirassol at 47%

Our model leans to Mirassol here, but not by much: 47% (fair odds 2.13) against 28% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match preview · 16 October 2026 · Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: Bayer Leverkusen favoured at 49%

Our model leans to Bayer Leverkusen here, but not by much: 49% (fair odds 2.04) against 23% for the draw. Published scoreline: 2-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match preview · 16 October 2026 · Premier League

Bournemouth vs Sunderland: Bournemouth favoured at 44%

Our model leans to Bournemouth here, but not by much: 44% (fair odds 2.27) against 27% for the draw. Published scoreline: 2-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match preview · 16 October 2026 · Premier League

Leeds vs Manchester United: the model can't split them

Leeds host Manchester United in a game our model cannot separate: 33% for the home side, 27% for the draw and 40% for the visitors.

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Match review · 15 October 2026 · UEFA Champions League

AS Roma 3–4 Real Madrid: model review

AS Roma 3–4 Real Madrid finished with Real Madrid winning. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to AS Roma at 51%, and rated the actual result at 25%.

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Match review · 15 October 2026 · UEFA Champions League

Manchester City 2–4 Paris Saint Germain: model review

Manchester City 2–4 Paris Saint Germain finished with Paris Saint Germain winning. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Manchester City at 57%, and rated the actual result at 21%.

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Match review · 15 October 2026 · Major League Soccer

Chicago Fire 1–3 Philadelphia Union: how the model saw it

Chicago Fire 1–3 Philadelphia Union finished with Philadelphia Union winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 39%, though it expected 1-2 rather than 1–3.

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Match review · 15 October 2026 · CONMEBOL Libertadores

Fluminense 1–2 Palmeiras: how the model saw it

Fluminense 1–2 Palmeiras finished with Palmeiras winning. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Fluminense at 37%, and rated the actual result at 32%.

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Match review · 15 October 2026 · UEFA Europa League

Lech Poznan 0–4 Bayer Leverkusen: model review

Lech Poznan 0–4 Bayer Leverkusen finished with Bayer Leverkusen winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 39%, though it expected 1-2 rather than 0–4.

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Match review · 15 October 2026 · UEFA Europa League

Red Bull Salzburg 0–4 AC Milan: model review

Red Bull Salzburg 0–4 AC Milan finished with AC Milan winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 46%, though it expected 0-1 rather than 0–4.

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Match preview · 15 October 2026 · Liga Profesional Argentina

Huracan vs Gimnasia La Plata: Huracan favoured at 41%

Our model leans to Huracan here, but not by much: 41% (fair odds 2.44) against 32% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match preview · 15 October 2026 · Premier League

Brentford vs Liverpool: a genuine coin flip by the numbers

Brentford host Liverpool in a game our model cannot separate: 38% for the home side, 26% for the draw and 36% for the visitors.

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Match preview · 15 October 2026 · Premier League

Everton vs Chelsea: the model can't split them

Everton host Chelsea in a game our model cannot separate: 39% for the home side, 25% for the draw and 36% for the visitors.

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Match preview · 15 October 2026 · La Liga

Real Betis vs Barcelona: Barcelona favoured at 44%

Our model leans to Barcelona here, but not by much: 44% (fair odds 2.27) against 26% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-2, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match review · 14 October 2026 · UEFA Champions League

Galatasaray 1–4 Barcelona: how the model saw it

Galatasaray 1–4 Barcelona finished with Barcelona winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 54%, though it expected 1-2 rather than 1–4.

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Match review · 14 October 2026 · UEFA Champions League

Inter 3–4 Club Brugge KV: how the model saw it

Inter 3–4 Club Brugge KV finished with Club Brugge KV winning. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Inter at 51%, and rated the actual result at 27%.

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Match review · 14 October 2026 · CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Boca Juniors 0–1 Vasco da Gama: model review

Boca Juniors 0–1 Vasco da Gama finished with Vasco da Gama winning. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Boca Juniors at 54%, and rated the actual result at 21%.

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Match review · 14 October 2026 · UEFA Champions League

Feyenoord 3–2 Como: model review

Feyenoord 3–2 Como finished with Feyenoord winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 43%, though it expected 2-1 rather than 3–2.

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Match review · 14 October 2026 · UEFA Champions League

Lask Linz 3–6 Liverpool: model review

Lask Linz 3–6 Liverpool finished with Liverpool winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 52%, though it expected 1-2 rather than 3–6.

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Match preview · 14 October 2026 · Major League Soccer

Columbus Crew vs Charlotte: a genuine coin flip by the numbers

Columbus Crew host Charlotte in a game our model cannot separate: 37% for the home side, 26% for the draw and 37% for the visitors.

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