Lech Poznan
vs
Bayer Leverkusen
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Lech Poznan 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen
The model makes it 34% Lech Poznan, 28% draw, 38% Bayer Leverkusen — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Lech Poznan 1.43, Bayer Leverkusen 1.57.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Lech Poznan are 35th on 0 points from 1 game; Bayer Leverkusen are 8th on 3 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Lech Poznan have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Crystal Palace.
- Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-0 win at home to RB Leipzig.
All Europa League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayer Leverkusen at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen
Lech Poznan
- L0-4away to Crystal Palace17 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Thun27 August 2026
- W7-0FC Thun20 August 2026
- W5-0away to KI Klaksvik14 August 2026
- W1-0KI Klaksvik6 August 2026
Bayer Leverkusen
- W2-0Celje16 September 2026
What these results say
- Lech Poznan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lech Poznan had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Lech Poznan carry a model rating of 6.9 against 7.11 for Bayer Leverkusen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.57 for Bayer Leverkusen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lech Poznan rate 1.09 in attack and 0.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bayer Leverkusen rate 1.32 and 0.79.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayer Leverkusen the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Lech Poznan against 1.57 for Bayer Leverkusen. Lech Poznan's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.32/0.79 for Bayer Leverkusen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lech Poznan at home · Bayer Leverkusen away
League matches only, this season — Lech Poznan in the Ekstraklasa, Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Lech Poznan 8 in the Ekstraklasa, Bayer Leverkusen 4 in the Bundesliga.
Lech Poznan score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Bayer Leverkusen have let in 0 there.
Bayer Leverkusen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Lech Poznan have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Lech Poznan
- vs Korona Kielce18 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 51%
- vs Sunderland22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 46%
- at Legia Warszawa25 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 33%
- vs Wisla Krakow31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 49%
Bayer Leverkusen
- vs SC Freiburg18 Oct · Bundesligawin 44%
- at OFI22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 52%
- at 1899 Hoffenheim25 Oct · Bundesligawin 47%
- vs VfB Stuttgart31 Oct · Bundesligawin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.