Fluminense
vs
Palmeiras
CONMEBOL Libertadores prediction
Our model says: Fluminense 1–0 Palmeiras
The model makes it 37% Fluminense, 31% draw, 32% Palmeiras — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fluminense 1.14, Palmeiras 1.04.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Fluminense are 2nd in CONMEBOL Libertadores, Group C on 8 points from 6 games; Palmeiras are 2nd in CONMEBOL Libertadores, Group F on 11 points from 6 games.
- Fluminense have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Platense.
- Palmeiras are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to LDU de Quito.
- Last 6 meetings: Fluminense 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Fluminense 3–2 Palmeiras.
Chance to go through
First leg of the CONMEBOL Libertadores Semi-finals tie. Second leg: Palmeiras v Fluminense, 22 Oct →
- Fluminense27%
- Level after both legs18%
- Palmeiras55%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes per leg, from the score matrices of the legs still to play. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fluminense vs Palmeiras
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fluminense at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fluminense vs Palmeiras
Fluminense
- L1-2away to Platense15 September 2026
- W2-0Platense8 September 2026
- D0-0Independiente Rivadavia11 August 2026
- W3-1Deportivo La Guaira28 May 2026
- W2-1Bolívar19 May 2026
Palmeiras
- W1-0LDU de Quito9 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cerro Porteno19 August 2026
- D1-1Cerro Porteno12 August 2026
- W4-1Junior28 May 2026
- L0-1Cerro Porteno21 May 2026
What these results say
- Fluminense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Palmeiras scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Palmeiras had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
CONMEBOL Libertadores table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Fluminense | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fluminense vs Palmeiras
- 15 August 2026Fluminense 3–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 26 February 2026Palmeiras 2–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 23 November 2025Palmeiras 0–0 FluminenseSerie A
- 23 July 2025Fluminense 1–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 8 December 2024Palmeiras 0–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 25 July 2024Fluminense 1–0 PalmeirasSerie A
Leading scorers: Fluminense and Palmeiras
Fluminense
No player in CONMEBOL Libertadores's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López34
- J. Arias32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Fluminense carry a model rating of 6.86 against 7.04 for Palmeiras. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Fluminense and 1.04 for Palmeiras. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fluminense rate 1.02 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Palmeiras rate 1.07 and 0.74.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fluminense the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Fluminense against 1.04 for Palmeiras. Fluminense's attack/defence rating is 1.02/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/0.74 for Palmeiras.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fluminense at home · Palmeiras away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Fluminense 30, Palmeiras 30.
Fluminense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Palmeiras have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Fluminense
Palmeiras
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.