Mirassol
vs
Internacional
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Mirassol 1–0 Internacional
The model makes it 44% Mirassol, 29% draw, 27% Internacional — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Mirassol 1.58, Internacional 0.99.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Mirassol are 15th on 32 points from 28 games; Internacional are 18th on 28 points from 28 games — Serie A.
- Mirassol are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Botafogo.
- Internacional have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Sao Paulo.
- Last 3 meetings: Mirassol 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Internacional 1–2 Mirassol.
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Mirassol vs Internacional
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mirassol at 44% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Mirassol vs Internacional
Mirassol
- W2-0Botafogo19 September 2026
- D2-2Vitoria13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Coritiba6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Flamengo2 September 2026
- D1-1Palmeiras30 August 2026
Internacional
- L0-1away to Sao Paulo20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chapecoense12 September 2026
- L2-3Santos6 September 2026
- L2-3away to Bahia30 August 2026
- D0-0Atletico Mineiro22 August 2026
What these results say
- Mirassol scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mirassol conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Internacional failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Internacional conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 32 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Mirassol vs Internacional
- 19 April 2026Internacional 1–2 MirassolSerie A
- 15 October 2025Mirassol 3–1 InternacionalSerie A
- 18 May 2025Internacional 1–1 MirassolSerie A
Leading scorers: Mirassol and Internacional
Mirassol
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.
Internacional
- J. Carbonero7 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mirassol carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.63 for Internacional. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Mirassol and 0.99 for Internacional. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mirassol rate 0.86 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Internacional rate 0.75 and 1.17.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mirassol the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Mirassol against 0.99 for Internacional. Mirassol's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.17 for Internacional.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Mirassol at home · Internacional away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Mirassol 28, Internacional 28.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Mirassol
- vs Sao Paulo25 Oct · Serie Awin 42%
- at Corinthians28 Oct · Serie Awin 30%
- at Chapecoense4 Nov · Serie Awin 36%
Internacional
- vs Botafogo25 Oct · Serie Awin 39%
- at Fluminense28 Oct · Serie Awin 23%
- vs Coritiba4 Nov · Serie Awin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.